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Technology Stocks : Fonix:Voice Recognition Product (FONX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: franco nuvoloni who wrote (1351)	11/18/1997 3:18:00 PM
From: Dr. Bob	Respond to of 3347

Frank, Sorry, but I think you're the one with the misconceptions. "Fonix does not need to produce anything" From the press release (emphasis mine): "...Siemens and fonix will COOPERATIVELY pursue PRODUCTS incorporating fonix technologies into Siemens integrated circuits..." "License fees, royalties and project costs will be provided under individual sub-agreements..." There IS a product, which fonix MUST help to develop. IF fonix's technology doesn't work (it probably does) or is inferior (and this is where I think the rub will come, based on what they've demo'ed so far), fonix gets NOTHING. I think there's a misconception in your example, too - i.e., that fonix/Siemens will get their product in all 100 million cell phones. That would be a coup exceeding what Microsoft, Intel, or anyone else has been able to accomplish after MANY years of trying. The rest of the world is not standing still, and there will be other successful approaches to the same sector. I'd be surprised if more than 40% of cell phones were "voice-enabled" in the next 2-3 years (a lot of people aren't going to pay for all the bells and whistles right away), and surprised if fonix/Siemens captured more than 25% of that market - so cut your numbers by 90%, and you and I start to get in the same ballpark. Bob

To: franco nuvoloni who wrote (1351)	11/18/1997 3:23:00 PM
From: Dr. Bob	Respond to of 3347

Frank, To be more explicit with my last post - I think MSFT/LHSPF, IBM, and Dragon will be on the market with "voice-enabled" cell phones, pagers, cars, etc. well before Siemens/fonix. Fonix has not demonstrated anything to make me think their technology is so superior as to capture the majority of the market as a johnny-come-lately, let alone monopolize it. Bob

To: franco nuvoloni who wrote (1351)	11/18/1997 3:41:00 PM
From: Dr. Bob	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3347

Again, to be more specific, what fonix has to "produce" is an improved version of its technology. If it was ready for prime time now, just needed to put it on Siemens chip, they would have had a lot of takers a lot sooner, a lot better demo, and the press release would have read differently - i.e., Siemens would be paying a bunch of money NOW for the rights, not with the signing of the first Statement of Work, and they would have announced a "product", not just the intent to "cooperatively pursue products". For the moment, Siemens is just buying a couple of lottery tickets, hoping it will pay off. The chance is there, I agree, but the odds are about the same for a big payoff. Bob