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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (155710)	8/19/2011 10:32:32 AM
From: Debt Free	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206097

IOC Option premiums interesting how premiums on the options change. Sold some Sep 55's yesterday when the stock was around $63. Now the same puts are selling for selling for $0.50 more and the stock is around $62. I can certainly live with that :-)

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (155710)	9/13/2011 10:09:01 AM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206097

Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) - Back to the Old Days?... Not from What we See 19 pages, 17 exhibits Download Link: sendspace.com excerpt: Perception versus Reality: With Talisman’s share price down 32% YTD in 2011 vs. 16% for its N. American E&P peers, investors appear to be sending a strong message that either they don’t understand the company’s strategy, or they don’t believe it’s being well executed (we believe it’s the latter). This perception is not the reality. Production from continuing ops rose 13% y/y in Q2 (9% ex. Colombia), and lowered guidance for 2011 production to average 430–440 kboe/d still represents 11% y/y growth (8% ex. Colombia), despite management’s view of <5% y/y growth which excludes the impact of assets sold in 2010. We believe the main culprit to the perception that Talisman cannot execute well on its ‘business’ is primarily related to the North Sea, a business that requires material annual maintenance and hence is prone to disappoint investors if guidance is not regularly set. Organic Growth: Our analysis indicates that Talisman has now embarked on a period of organic growth that appears capable of being entirely funded with internally generated cash flow. While our base forecast indicates 12% average annual production growth (2010–2015), we consider multiple capex and commodity price scenarios that illustrate compelling organic growth. Sell the North Sea? While it provides substantial free cash flow, the North Sea has been operating at <70% efficiency, and thus in our view distracts from impressive results elsewhere. While not on the table, we explore the potential impact of Talisman selling its North Sea operations, thereby surfacing the true underlying growth of the company’s operations, while improving quarter-to-quarter predictability of company-wide production. Valuation: Talisman’s shares are trading at a two-year low and look to be discounting US$74.00 Brent vs. the average long-dated futures prices of ~US$97.00. Talisman is currently trading at 3.8x 2012E EBIDAX vs. 5.6x for its large cap Cdn Oil & Gas peers. We continue to apply 6.0x 2012E EBIDAX of C$5,004 million to derive our US$26.00 target price.