SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (78033)8/20/2011 9:17:19 AM
From: stomper  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217754
 
<<But the masses are getting it....the media is full of reports and there is lots of talk.>>

I've noticed that even those with a bit of rogue in them, and who are willing to look at a gold purchase, look at it almost exclusively as a parallel to the stock market and/or their favorite stock they are getting beat up on: "yeah, I may buy some gold instead of GOOG, i've been getting hammered on that this quarter". I bet I have heard a half dozen iterations of this in the last few months--and none have purchased physical yet.

I would say it is 1 in 100 (if that) that look at gold with any eye toward the timeless function it plays in this type of current monetary environment. It's very hard to get a read on the general populace when you are used to conversing and reading deeply on economics...you generally expect people to come at it with somewhat the same reasoning as you have, but it just is not the case.



To: carranza2 who wrote (78033)8/20/2011 5:29:58 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 217754
 
i am suggesting that at some point gold is a sell

and we phase-change gold into yielding and sharply devalued real estate

what is that point?

(i) when government bond rate yield 18%? not necessarily, for the bonds of many nations now yield 18 and higher, but i would not suggest to the fortunate residents of those nations sell gold for anything. they are in any case fortunate because their governments are nearer to recognized bankruptcy.

(ii) when one oz of gold can buy several homes? not sure, for one oz of gold can certainly buy something in detroit that has closets and parking, and also can buy something in zimbabwe.

(iii) when one oz of gold can pay the wage of some neighbor of the city to work 8 hrs/day x 5 days/week x 50 weeks? not sure, because a neighbor in many nations can be hired for one year at a lot less than one oz of gold.

(iv) when dow:gold = 1:1? perhaps not this time, because as in the case of zimbabwe and argentina, there was no particularly good to buy a business within those domains until many businesses completely disappeared.

(v) when folks are lined up around the block to buy gold? that marker is no good for folks were lined up around the block in shanghai 1948, and selling gold at that juncture was definitely a bad bad idea. i am sure selling for the average resident of carthage at one particularly fevered moment in history was also a bad idea.

(vi) when gold:platinum ratio reaches 2:1? yeah, we can phase-change some gold into some more platinum at that juncture, then hope to change back into gold at 1:1 or into something else, which brings us right back to the original question, when do we sell gold in exchange for what?

we have much time to answer the question; perhaps as long as 7-15 years, and maybe longer, but less time if gold goes up fast as in the past few weeks.

In any case, at some point we need to off-load gold and phase-change the capital into something else.

re slaughtering and such, yes, most shall fall and few may rise.

let us altruistically warn others, then do what we must in response to call of duty, and pray before we prey.