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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tonto who wrote (111057)8/20/2011 6:42:03 PM
From: steve harris3 Recommendations  Respond to of 224748
 
Obama has to buy the AARP clan back, that will be our first indication, payoff checks to the seniors...



To: tonto who wrote (111057)8/21/2011 8:29:11 AM
From: TideGlider6 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 224748
 
Scott Walker Claims Victory in the Battle of Wisconsin President Obama, the governor notes, avoided the state on his recent trip to the Midwest.
WSJ.COM


    By ROBERT COSTA Madison, Wis.

    It's lunchtime at the Capitol and summering schoolteachers are singing beneath the white-granite dome. They march in circles, waving signs and belting out "Solidarity Forever," a union ditty. Down the hall, in his first-floor office, Gov. Scott Walker shrugs off the spectacle.

    "Twenty-five people sometimes sound as loud as twenty-five hundred," he says. Six months since he introduced legislation to limit the power of public employees to collectively bargain for benefits, Mr. Walker, a first-term Republican, has grown accustomed to the hothouse. But Greek-style protests have done little to thwart his agenda.

    If anything, Mr. Walker is more determined to battle on, especially after four of six Republican state senators won recall elections this month. Democrats had hoped to spook the governor and his upper-chamber allies, who were thrust into the national spotlight for tangling with union brass. Progressive groups from We Are Wisconsin to Organizing for America hustled to boot eligible Republicans. Tens of millions of dollars poured in, as did party operatives and union workers.

    Yet visions of a repudiation were snuffed. Democrats netted two races, but Mr. Walker could hardly be blamed for the losses: One Republican represented a Democratic-leaning district; the other became tabloid fodder after leaving his wife and taking up with a younger woman. In the swing region north of Milwaukee, GOP senators survived comfortably, enabling Republicans to maintain a one-seat majority (17-16). Democrats, for their part, beat back three GOP-spurred recalls. But investing millions statewide to topple only two vulnerable incumbents was a union embarrassment.

    Not that union leaders didn't give it their all. From their headquarters in Madison, activists manned phone banks and hit the streets with anti-Walker paraphernalia. The scene "was kind of remarkable," says David Poklinkoski, the president of Local 2304, an electrical workers union here. Together they built a motley political apparatus largely separate from outside labor lobbyists and Democratic Party apparatchiks. That coordination, Mr. Poklinkoski says, will ensure that the progressive movement continues, even when the outsiders go elsewhere.

    Reflecting on the recall vote, Mr. Walker points to the strong turnout and four GOP victories as an indicator of where the electorate stands on his reforms. Viewing Wisconsin through the prism of the rotunda rabble-rousers, he cautions, would be a mistake. "You can get a pretty skewed perspective," he says, here in the capital. Beyond Dane County, where gray-beard professors and union heavies roost, Republicans, he tells me, are winning the battle for Wisconsin.



    Associated Press Protesters inside the Capitol in Madison, Wis.

    That's a sentiment heard more and more around the state. "So it turns out that the sky isn't going to fall on all local governments," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel recently editorialized, praising the governor for offering tools to municipalities for dealing with the administration's fiscal cutbacks. Mr. Walker has also helped bring thousands of new nonunion jobs to the state, which, he informs me, has surged to 24th from 41st in Chief Executive magazine's most recent ranking of best states for business.

    Meanwhile, Wisconsin public-employee unions are fretting, especially the teachers unions, as incoming dues diminish. This week, the Wisconsin Education Association Council announced it will lay off about 40% of its staff. Coupled with the millions of dollars lost in the recall effort, it's a damaging blow. In coming months, once Wisconsinites see that their school districts are increasingly solvent and their property taxes low, Mr. Walker expects many more on-the-fence voters to rally to his side. "People will pop themselves on the head and say, 'I get it,'" he predicts.

    The governor, who's been compared by protesters to Hitler and Darth Vader, will probably remain a political bogeyman, at least to Madison comrades who gleefully paper coffee shop windows with "Recall Walker" posters. Per state law, he will be eligible for recall in January. But that appears less likely as his policies take effect. A Public Policy Polling survey released this week shows 47% of voters supportive of recalling Mr. Walker, down from 50% in late May.

    "Certainly some people, more intense folks, will push for recall," says Mr. Walker. But, he continues, "We increasingly hear that the White House doesn't want it." Democrats apparently are reluctant to commit forces. In a recent conference call, Mike Tate, the state Democratic chair, was ambivalent when asked about further recalls, emphasizing that "citizen groups" would be responsible for laying any early groundwork. Party favorites are not kick-starting their campaigns. On Friday, former Sen. Russ Feingold, considered Mr. Walker's top potential Democratic challenger, announced he would not seek office next year.

    Still, Mr. Walker is manning the barricades. He's collected more than $2 million for his war chest since the start of the year. President Obama, he notes, avoided Wisconsin on his recent trip to the Midwest, but he doesn't expect the president or Democrats to surrender the state in 2012. Mr. Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points three years ago, but with an open Senate seat in play next year, plus 10 electoral votes, it's certain to be a battleground.

    Reince Priebus, a former state GOP chairman and current chairman of the Republican National Committee, promises to have Mr. Walker's back should outside labor and Democratic Party supporters come back for another round. "The problem for the Democrats is that the Republicans are here to stay," he says, and "that in fact Wisconsin is a red state and the Democrats—as frustrating as it is for them—better wake up to that reality. Wisconsin voters have had enough of the pigs at the trough. If the public-employee unions want to take another $30 million and flush it down the toilet, they can be my guest."

    Don't expect Mr. Walker to retreat anytime soon. As we part, the chants echo anew in the Capitol's marble halls. Stone-faced, the governor turns to the stack of papers atop his oak desk and gets back to work. I ask how he keeps his cool. "You start out the day on your knees in prayer," replies the son of a Baptist preacher. "Then you do a little bit of exercise. The best thing is to get out of the capital."

    Mr. Costa is a political reporter for National Review.



    To: tonto who wrote (111057)8/21/2011 1:15:03 PM
    From: Hope Praytochange  Respond to of 224748
     
    Aug. 21, 2011, 9:00 a.m. EDT

    Will hard data confirm recession surveys predict?




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    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — This much we know: confidence for consumers and businesses alike has deteriorated to recession levels.

    But can surveys accurately predict a recession? Is weak confidence enough in itself to cause an economic contraction?

    Some economists say the mood of consumers and business leaders has been a sure-fire way of forecasting weakness in the real economy.

    For instance, simply adding the figures from the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters to the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey — and those surveys on their own are respected early-warning signs — and you get an indicator that has a 100% track record for telling us whether we are in a recession or not, according to David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff.





    And more bad news: by Rosenberg’s reckoning, stock markets are only halfway priced for a recession. He has 950 as the point of re-entry for the S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -1.50%

    But there is a counter argument for why the U.S. won’t enter a recession, even if confidence is sour. It runs something along the lines that the raucous debt-ceiling debate, and the ensuing Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, caused a confidence deterioration that’s not really based on the underlying performance of the economy.

    And as consumers and business alike discover the world has not ended, they will take a deep breath and go about their, well, business.




    MarketWatch consensus
    See economic calendar
    date report Consensus previous Aug. 23 New home sales 315,000 312,000 Aug. 24 Durable goods orders 2.5% -1.9% Aug. 25 Jobless claims 408,000 408,000 Aug. 26 GDP 0.9% 1.3% Aug. 26 Consumer sentiment 55.1 54.9
    /conga/economy-politics/calendars/preview widget.html 163519

    “The latest hard numbers — initial jobless claims or weekly chain store sales — do, after all, not suggest at all that the economic situation between July and August deteriorated as much as after the collapse of Lehman Brothers,” said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research.

    “In general it seems as if the formerly very tight correlation between the Philly Fed index and measures of economic activity broke down in early 2010,” he said.

    Bandholz is however worried about a negative feedback between the stock market and the broader economy. He’s not alone.

    Ethan Harris and Neil Dutta of Bank of America Merrill Lynch talk about an “uncertainty shock” — that is, the act of consumers or businesses delaying a decision.

    “Some economists find that fluctuations in uncertainty are an important driver of economic cycles while others find a fairly limited impact,” they said in a note to clients.



    ECONOMY AND POLITICS | Economy and Politics page


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    /conga/story/misc/dc.html 163489

    Nick Bloom, a Stanford University professor and contributor to the VOXeu blog, is a believer in the notion that uncertainty leads to recessions — and successfully predicted the timing and depth of the last recession using, in part, the VIX /quotes/zigman/2766221 VIX +0.89% volatility indicator.

    Bloom is now predicting a contraction of about 1% in late 2011, with a rebound by late 2012. (And he predicts six more weeks of volatility.) See external link to Bloom's predictions.

    The Merrill economists aren’t sold on his analysis, and also point to Kansas City Fed research showing uncertainty didn’t really impact consumer spending. See external link to Kansas City Fed research.

    The hard data/soft data debate won’t be solved in the coming week, which in any case will be dominated by what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will say in a major speech set for Friday, as well as developments in the ongoing euro-zone debt crisis.

    But the July durable-goods orders figures, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department, will advance the discussion.

    Economists polled by MarketWatch anticipate a 2.5% advance in July orders. It’s a volatile indicator — flipping between positive and negative percentage changes the last 13 months — and a huge order for Boeing airplanes placed by American Airlines should boost the headline number.

    Smooth out the numbers using a three-month moving average, and orders have posted year-on-year gains since March 2010. This year, they have slowed from a high of 8.2% to 6.8% in June. A particularly bad durable-goods orders reading could influence the debate.

    As could the jobless claims data. First-time filings for jobless claims in the week ending Aug. 13 crept up to 408,000 from 399,000. Economists see little change next week.

    One indicator not likely to move the market is the release of new-home sales for July, set for release Tuesday at 10 a.m. Eastern — the housing market, particularly for new builds, has been bouncing along the bottom since 2009.

    On the day of Bernanke’s speech, the second reading of second-quarter gross comestic product is due for release, and it’s likely to be even worse than the paltry 1.3% the Commerce Department estimated the first time around. And the final August reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge is due just five minutes before the bearded banker speaks