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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (6261)	8/21/2011 12:49:22 AM
From: marc ultra	1 Recommendation Respond to of 10065

It looks like that article was written on 2/26/2002 when we were still in a correction off the 2000 bull market high. Shortly after on 3/12/2002 we plunged down to 1180 and > 20% off the high and solidly entered a bear. We then further plunged on down all the way to776 at the 10/9/02 bear market bottom. Conditions were certainly conducive for a bear from early in 2000 when Bob switched to bearish and only returned to bullish on the spectacular final retest on 3/10/03 at S&P 800 leading to an approximate double by the 2007 high. Separate from the article if you thought conditions were not conducive for a bear but a point comes when you do fall into a clear bear, then you have to realize things can get a lot worse and you were wrong if you were saying there would be no bear. We're sort of facing that now where I'm (and Bob) are saying we're in a correction and fundamentals don't appear conducive to a bear. But we are down around 18% so while I think the 1119 area will mark the area of the low, if we plunge a lot further we'll be in a bear and I'll be wrong. I think everything looks quite bullish at the moment in things like valuation and interest rates and the Fed etc. but there is a legitimate issue of whether we could fall into a recession which would make things more difficult.This isn't 2008 and I consider that 1119 area a buying opportunity. I think GDP will stay positive and good enough for profits but that's the big issue.