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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (44031)	8/21/2011 11:21:09 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78464

Yes, agree. Fwiw, my "secret" flow metric has been $65K/bopd, and I've used that to value and buy many e&p stocks. That would be bopd, not boepd. Sometimes that has worked for me. Not always though.

To: E_K_S who wrote (44031)	8/22/2011 1:05:38 AM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78464

re LEI - but you need to account for the dilution due to the ongoing operating losses. They increase their sharecount by a couple of million shares each quarter. Now they have only 700k$ left, so it looks like another "ATM offering" is due. They are asset rich but cash and cash flow poor - a combination that does not work well in the current market. In addition, I believe you may be making a mistake to double count assets, if you add the flowing barrel value to the land value, since they are the same property. At the very least, you are counting 2012 flow rates but do not count the cost to develop these properties, which I think is going to be significant. Based on the prevailing land prices, you have probably enough of a safety margin to account for the factors mentioned above, assuming that management would do the right thing for shareholders (which may be to sell out if the shareprice goes too low to allow for accreditive financing using secondaries.