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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (11576)8/22/2011 7:19:13 PM
From: brokenst0nes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 16955
 
Jacob,

Interested to know how YGE/TSL have maintained margins yet others like LDK/JASO haven't, is it down to the losers being tied into higher polysilicon prices, either via their own inefficient manufacturing of poly, or via contracts with third party suppliers, or is the problem more to do with pricing that some companies obtain in the end market, or a combination of both?

Any concern that as poly prices tumble (if you believe CS) that FSLR will lose their current advantage? Have read somewhere that FSLR haven't been able to reduce their costs for a couple of quarters, thoughts on that?



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (11576)8/24/2011 4:50:22 PM
From: Jacob Snyder1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 16955
 
Sold JKS today, at $17.26 at the close, 1/3 of my position (bought at $16). This corrects a mistake I made (at a profit, but it's still a mistake).

Back-testing my results, I find this consistent error: When I start buying, I am too enthusiastic; not patient enough. I buy too much, too early, and sometimes run out of cash before the bottom. I need to force myself, to maintain the discipline of always buying equal-$ amounts at each price point. Also, I need to set the buy-prices far enough apart, to include the "long tails", which seem to happen every 1-3 years.

This correction, leaves me with equal-$ JKS buys at 14$ and 16$.

Next, I need to sell half my FSLR (2 of 4 buys), to equalize holdings among my 4 solars. The 50dma at $116 will probably be resistance, so I'll wait to see if I can get that price. If it doesn't happen in the next couple of weeks, I'll reduce my sell price to as low at $105.