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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (3087)	11/18/1997 5:04:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike, you raised a lot of questions about the justification of the shift turn in current sentiment. They are all valid questions except we are not going to find out exactly why. Paraphrasing what Jimmy ? (the bowtie bachelor who appears as guest on CNBC every Friday) favorite line "... don't worry about the FED, just watch the market", I think that is as good an explanation we will ever get. Remember, analysts HAVE to make up explanations to appear smart. I really don't give a damn what the analysts are saying at this point. The fundamentals have not changed. When the fundamentals changed, we will know it, the market will know it. I don't see it, do you? So why don't just accept what the market gives us and follow the crowd. It is too late to sell unless the fundies change. It may be too early to buy because the trend has not turned. What is left is cash. Hold on to it and buy all you can when the tide turns. As to if I believe history will repeat itself that simply? I would say the January 1997 stretch that acually lasted about 7 weeks from top to bottom is as scary as it gets since the the drillers woke up last year. If this downtrend tops that, then this one will be used as the worst selloff reference for next year. In short - I don't know. Good luck.

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (3087)	11/18/1997 5:43:00 PM
From: Tom L. French	Respond to of 95453

Michael, "And do you see any explanation why the whole sentiment totally changed in less than 2 weeks?" Hi Michael. I'm new to posting on this thread, but have been following it and the drillers for a while. I wonder how much the world economic uncertainty is affecting the drillers. From what I have read, assumptions about growth in demand for oil (and hence new wells) are based on very strong growth of economies worldwide, but if Asia growth slows and results in slower growth in the US (a much debated, but, IMHO, real possibility), the overall impact could slow growth in demand for oil, and slow down the rapid growth of this sector. I just wonder how much perceptions are changing in this regard, and adding to other factors, like taking profits out and moving momentum money elsewhere, which are fueling this sell off. It seems to me that since the drillers are now trending down like the rest of the market, it's likely they're being affected by these bigger picture issues. If that's so, I worry that it could be awhile before they re-establish that strong up trend they had for so long. Of course, I could be (and actually I hope) I'm wrong about this. Anyway, I think it makes sense now to look for confirmation of any move up in the broader market. I'm just glad I'm mostly in cash already, so when Thean helps us see the turn, I can jump back in. Regards, TomLF