To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (10038 ) 11/18/1997 7:06:00 PM From: Gary Hoyer Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25960
All, some thoughts on Cymer, Asia, and the AMAT JOLT! It should be clear to everyone that the capital equipment sector has been way oversold, and for very speculative reasons. These worries over Asia and the companies that have "exposure" there are overreactions of the nth magnitude. Where has this guidance come from? Not from the companies. No, it's from the analysts who try to put 2 and 2 together and end up with 3. Believe me, for companies like Cymer that will be involved in the massive shrinking die fab upgrade cycle, there are some sweet times ahead. Watch out for AMAT this week. Their earnings report is going to provide a BIG JOLT to the capital equip. sector, I guarantee it. Cymer traded today in line with the lithography, cap equip., tech, nasdaq. No big deal. Finally, I snaged this post from the Cymer thread on Motley Fool because it so agrees with my belief that Asia is hell bent on becoming a technology powerhouse in the future: --------------- Subject: Cymer and Asia From: cmh <cmh@accountant.net> Date: Mon, 17 Nov 97 00:27:23 -0600 Message: 97 of 102 in Cymer (CYMI) A lot of bunk has been written about Asia. For Cymer, there is only one questions that are important, 1. Will Samsung, Hyundai and Daewoo cut back on their aggressive ambition to dominate chips? The answer is no. I am Korean, I know these companies very well. (I in fact won honorable mention in the Hyundai visions of the future essay contest earlier this year). And I know how the Korean government works. Hi tech is the very LAST industry that the Koreans will cut back on. Some car makers (especially the smaller ones like Kia) will be allowed to go bankrupt. A lot of the banks will be merged with each other. The insurance industry will go through a lot of reforms. Koreans are very proud of the fact that they are number one in the world in memory chips. (This is currently the only industry in which Korean firms are truly the world leaders). The only thing Lee Kyun-hee (chairman of Samsung) thinks about are chips (see the Time magazine article with SKG Dreamworks on the cover). Steven Spielberg invited Lee for dinner to his house to talk about a possible $200 million+ investment in Dreamworks. Instead of talking about film, all Lee talked about that evening were chips. If anyone reads Korean or has a friend who does, look at www.chosunilbo.com, the Korean edition. You will see that the economic 'crisis' in Korea hits banks, real estate and heavy industries. Hi tech and especially chips fabrication will proceed full speed ahead. CMH ------------- Gary.