To: Jeffrey S. Mitchell who wrote (3369 ) 11/18/1997 7:21:00 PM From: tony cobitz Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10786
Over the past several months I have watched this (still informative)thread deteriorate due to the constant TECH-related bickering. As a professional in the Thoroughbred racing industry, I often find analogies between the stock market and my area of expertise. TECH, and all of those who (arguably) over-emphasize the importance of technical analysis, have close counterparts in the racing world. I refer to those who over-emphasize the importance of "speed figures" in an effort to neatly express the ability or, worse yet, class of a given racehorse. Speed figures (like technical analyses, no doubt) can be a productive tool when used in conjunction with other salient factors. The problem is that many people use them as if they were "magic" numbers; a horse which runs a 110 is worth X amount, and is capable of beating those horses which run lower figures, etc. These kind of simplistic assumptions are regularly exposed as being limited. Sure, generally speaking, the fastest horse wins the race, but there are MANY more variables to consider, some of which (determination, for example) are every bit as important as how fast a horse is capable of running. Viewed from the context of the above analogy, Tech is a speed-figure player wearing blinkers, whose number-oriented gambles produce some wins and some losses. He is primarily (if not exclusively) interested in gambling, and the numbers mean everything to him. Jeff Mitchell, on the other hand, is an eclectic observer whose broad perspective allows him to analyze, weigh and judge many different variables, including those to which numbers bear no relation. He appreciates that companies and horses are too complex to be reduced to simple numerical representations. And while I am certainly not going to argue that Jeff is incapable of being wrong, I have absolutely no doubt, especially with respect to ALYD, that his perspective will prove superior to TECH's in the long run. As a final note, (the racehorse) Alydar has made an important contribution to the Thoroughbred world through his sons and daughters. And it's interesting to note that one of the strongest genetic characteristics which he passed on is a tendency toward late maturation. Could it be that his namesake in the high-tech sector will follow suit? Good luck to all... Tony