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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (53487)	8/29/2011 9:21:34 PM
From: Sam	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95757

Lam Research: Top Pick In Equip’t Rebound, Says Citi By Tiernan Ray Citigroup’s chip equipment analyst Timothy Arcuri offers a post-earnings wrap on the equipment business following Applied Material’s ( AMAT) forecast last Wednesday of fiscal Q4 results below expectations, citing a breakdown in orders across its industry. The current annual “run rate” for “wafer fab equipment” orders is $20 billion, as of this quarter, and $26 billion worth of shipments for the year, which is “unsustainable,” writes Arcuri. Shipments may fall again in Q4, but Arcuri expects orders to trend up. He also thinks most of the cuts in estimates for equipment makers are done at this point, with EPS estimates for 2012 having come down 25% since June. The Street is modeling $30 billion in wafer fab equipment for the full year, and $27 billion in 2012, he writes. And there are signs of life, according to Arcuri: 1) Samsung is raising its NAND new capacity plan for 2011 from 40K wspm addition to 60-80K wspm, with most of the upside expansion in CQ4; 2) Hynix has restored ~50% of its NAND capacity ramp pushed out in Jul, which adds 15K wspm spending in CQ4; 3) TSMC is signaling more confidence that IC inventory correction should be over by end-CQ3, and utilization rate will move up in CQ4; 4) INTC’s Fab 24/28 22nm orders are coming through in CQ3/4. And thinks that with the group trading around 10 times an EPS “trough rate” that may be materializing this quarter and next, the stocks reflect most of the possible downside. Hence, he recommends Lam Research ( LRCX) as likely to outperform the group in a rebound, “given its memory/foundry exposure and high % of rev in turn business.” Lam shares today are up 86 cents, or 2%, at $38.16.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (53487)	8/30/2011 10:26:14 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95757

State Street Global Investor Confidence Index vs S&P500 is now back near levels of Dec 2007 and Oct 2010 and just above the lowest reading ever of 82.1 in Oct 2008 when MANY tech stocks bottomed... Investor Confidence Index Decreases from 102.5 to 89.6 in August statestreet.com BOSTON, August 30, 2011 — State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), today released the results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index® for August 2011. Investor Confidence declined to 89.6 in August, down 12.9 points from July's revised reading of 102.5. The most significant decline was exhibited by North American investors, with confidence decreasing to 88.6, down 13.9 points from July's revised level of 102.5. Declines were more muted elsewhere with the European Index sliding 4.6 points to 90.5, down from July's revised reading of 95.1. Amongst Asian investors, confidence decreased 0.6 points from July's revised level of 95.8, to 95.2. The State Street Investor Confidence Index was developed by Harvard University professor Kenneth Froot and Paul O’Connell of State Street Associates. It measures investor confidence or risk appetite quantitatively by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index assigns a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite: the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the higher risk appetite or confidence. A reading of 100 is neutral; it is the level at which investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their allocations to risky assets. The index differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the actual trades, as opposed to opinions, of institutional investors. “Perhaps not surprisingly, the elevated level of volatility this month took its toll on investor sentiment,” commented Froot. “Diminished growth expectations, the downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating, and continued difficulties around European sovereign financing, all combined to cause institutional investors to reduce their allocations to risky assets. The key question that investors are grappling with is whether elevated levels of stress in the financial system will have real effects on the economy.” “Looking regionally, it is clear that the setbacks this month were felt most strongly by US-based institutional investors,” added O'Connell. “Typically, a double-digit decline only occurs once a year or so. To keep things in perspective, it should be noted that this month's 12.9 point decline is not as severe as the 21.7 point decline registered among North American investors in October 2008, and institutional investors elsewhere are somewhat more optimistic, especially in Asia.”