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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearded One who wrote (7169)	11/18/1997 8:39:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Respond to of 9285

Maybe this observation goes on this thread. T goes up 8% on no news. ATT capital, stock still owned by T, is owned by NCT, which is owned by Nomura Securities, which is rumored to be in trouble. NCT volume up 2000% with no price change. It's like reading a mystery novel.

To: Bearded One who wrote (7169)	11/18/1997 8:50:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

Bearded One : >>Are they looking at the market as a whole or are they looking at something like the S&P or DJI and do they account for the changes?<< I will try to answer your question indirectly. Suppose in 1900 you took let's say $1,000,000 and invested in in the NYSE either weighing according to market cap. or equal amounts and then just held through 1997 (of course assuming no taxes and no holding costs). This we agree would be the number we would the number we are interested in. Of course some companies would go under and their value in the portfolio would be zero. Well, there is a problem in trying to compare this to the index. The index, even if it includes the complete exchange is not really buy and hold, every time a new issue comes out the index level is maintained but the new issue needs to be included so the only way the real portfolio would have a performance similar to that of the index is if buying and selling to adjust positions so as to follow the index took place in the real portfolio. All this being said, it is still true that the investing in stocks beats the pants out of other less risky investments. The thing is that the indices have a bias towards the surviving companies. Pancho