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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (5161)	11/18/1997 7:34:00 PM
From: tech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

Would anyone advise me against turning off my computer till Jan. 1st? Does anyone think there is that much downside risk to Quantum in the future? I know there isn't now, but in 1 1/2 months, could there be? Tech

To: Rob S. who wrote (5161)	11/18/1997 7:45:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

"To repeart, what Quantum said in their conference call in response to an anlysts' question about what numbers to plug in for 1998, management said that 60% was not out of line but 100% was not reasonable." No, actually for fiscal 1998 (year ends March '98), they said that they thought 100% Year over Year growth was doable, but after that--for fiscal '99 (ends March 99)--a slowdown to market growth was reasonable, since the reason that they are exceeding market growth now is because they are taking market share from others. After a certain point, taking more market share becomes impossible. Market growth in the backup tape business, I have read, is a robust 40-45%, (though where that number comes from I cannot remember--but it includes all of the new NT business, and the new networks, servers, etc. that are springing up like weeds in every business of any size). Add a few percentage points for taking a little market share, and for a growing international business, and you can come up with 50-60% fairly quickly.