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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George A. Roberts who wrote (4129)	11/18/1997 8:24:00 PM
From: patrick k chase	Respond to of 7841

Hey everybody- Have you all noticed how irrational Fanni is in his threads? I have come to the conclusion that this guy has a personality disorder, likes getting others angry and irritated with him, and copes with criticism by playing the victim of others wrath. He doesn't have a nickel invested in the stock, either way. He probably, as has been stated before by others, is in jail, for how can a guy like this post so many ridiculous comments if he were gainfully employed? Lastly, he never says a single positive thing about anything or anybody except himself. I honestly think the less attention he gets the better.

To: George A. Roberts who wrote (4129)	11/18/1997 8:45:00 PM
From: Vanni Resta	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

George Roberts: Fair question, why the interest. I made a lot of money in these stocks during the May to August spectacular runup. Then I got out just at the right time because I studied the sector closely and paid attention. So I guess you could say I sort of have a sentimental attachment to these stocks, and I keep following them, even though they are now dogs and will remain so for many months. While I was learning the sector, several of the more thoughtful posters, like Sam, spent a lot of personal time helping me understand what is going on. I challenged Sam's ideas aggressively, as I do, and he always came back with reasonable responses in a kind manner, and set me straight when I was wrong. Many others who follow the thread but do not post contacted me privately by email, back when I could still post my address before the mail bombs started arriving. Several of them worked at some of the DD makers. While they never gave me inside information, their insights, too, were invaluable. I lost contact with them back in June, when I was still moving into some of these stocks, but I think they still follow the thread as well, so I continue to post what I can add, as a way to pay back and thank them for their help. So you see, there are a lot of powerful incentives to remain in contact with these threads, despite the constant plebian attacks I must undergo for having the nerve to disagree with people. As for the future of SEG, ask Sam or read his posts. He knows better than anyone. There is really no need to waste electrons re-explaining it, but basically a high-end price war broke out due to overcapacity. The under $1,000 PC is another problem for the DD makers. But SEG has a particular problem. It's vertical integration is basically like alcohol. It makes the good times better and the bad times worse. So it happens to suffer now more than the others. It certainly will remain solvent. But who knows. When there is over capacity, mergers occur. I am not saying I know of any in the works, I don't. When things will turn around is anyone's guess. All the suppliers must first come to grips with the price wars that have decimated margins (the potential for which always made the low p/e ratios on these stocks perfectly rational). Then investors will have to have the confidence that the price wars (which by the way I predicted back in May) won't break out again. When will all this occur? Who knows. My guess would be, and it is only a guess, that given the hugeness of the downward revisions, this is a lot more than just a minor problem that will go away in a quarter or two. But how can I say? Forced to predict, I would say these stocks (QNTM aside) won't go anywhere significant for three to six months, and may start to regroup during the summer or fall. The sector could be all patched up in 1999, and then WDC and SEG could move into the 30s or even higher. Anyone cutting and pasting this out six months from now to show how stupid I am please include this: this is only a guess since there are too many variables that are hard to predict. For now, though, stay away from these stocks, other than QNTM. Sell 'em if you have 'em, take your losses and put you money to better use elsewhere. You can always buy these stocks back three to five months from now at the same price, if for some strange reason you are married to them. Happy Investing! Vanni