ahwnn, agree with the contention re platinum relative to gold, but gold is just getting started.
four points to consider,
(i) 80% of gold mania gain might occur in the last 20% of gold mania elapsed time
- if so, it would men we need to have a needling peak, which we have not had, and #2, in order to have such a needle peak, we need to first enjoy regular daily moves of 3 digits, and we certainly have not had such
(ii) at last peak in '81, the spot was 150-200% of the very slow moving 200-days moving average - we are now at 25-30% over the average
- again, just math. i am not saying "this time is different", i am figuring "this time should be no different"
(iii) hardly anyone has any gold to speak of, and the gold shares are trading on basis PE as opposed gold in ground
(iv) the bubble remains in paper, obviously
per just in in-tray
"... anyone got this UBS report in a better format? Pretty catchy headline: Euro break-up – the consequences
zerohedge.com "
"Bring Out Your Dead - UBS Quantifies Costs Of Euro Break Up, Warns Of Collapse Of Banking System And Civil War"
and other pieces of relevant mail
From: G
Time: 2011 09 6 8:19 AM
Subject: Re: Gold trade reporting
Well the good news is that 400k euro still does not buy too much in our village. But just wait a little while.
The french already tried to impose a new form of opportunity tax on basis that all foreign held property (owned by non french) would be levied a income tax on potential rental income.
So let's say have one house that rented out at 20k euro per year, then the tax rate is say 40%. Then tax of 8k of tax is due.
But let's say mac owned a similar house in france that he wanted to leave empty for the 11 months he was not there. Well the french govt took the view that there is an implied rental (opportunity). And as such the tax would be a similar 8k. 2venthough not rented out.
Anyways this was just overthrown by euro constitution basis that all euro citizens should be treated equally. Ie a dutch man owning a 2nd residence in france should get the same treatment as a frenchman owning a 2nd home. And there was no way that they were going to tax all the french on this basis
So for now it is postponed , but I fully expect them to target all non european owned properties. For simple reason that we do not vote !!!
And we already have a wealth tax for french assets owned by a foreigner . Basically says that over eur1.3 mill of net assets (houses, cars etc) , then their is a levy of a 0.25 % from the 1st euro (for a net value of assets over 1.3m euros) and of 0.5 % from the 1st euro (for a net value of assets over 3m euros).
((( Good news that this was reset this year from a 800k euro limit, and progressive rates of 0.55 % to 1.8 % )
SO AS A BIG WARNING TO ANYONE BUYING PROPERTY IN A FISCALLY CONSTRAINED STATE ON THE SPIRAL DOWN. REMEMBER THAT YOU HAVE NO VOTE. AND LOCAL POLITICIANS WILL BE QUICK TO SELL YOU OUT FOR MARGINAL TAX. WHETHER THAT BE ARIZONA, GREECE or .... And don't think the uk or ny won't follow suite.
Best regards
G
From: J
Time: Tue Sep 06 07:58:27 2011
Subject: Re: Gold trade reporting
G, friend's sister, a Swiss age 40 and gets paid in CHF is pulling trigger on a euro 400k home in the same village as you. Am unsure what euro 400k buys out where you are but as the Swiss tends to be high savers, suspect enough can buy, so perhaps they do not mind a high currency for a while.
I suspect wastrelism is a spreading disease, and in time all starts spending, either because of fear of loss or just have too much sleeping capital to sit on.
I also suspect there is a price of gold that would get many on this blog starting to spend. The Chinese tradition of dying rich may fall when the price of condo on waikiki hits 3 Troy ounces per 1,000 sft.
I was comparing an advertisement dated September 24th 2008 for geewhizbang colonoscopy at hkd 8,580 when gold was usd 900/Troy. My ohwhoawee experience yesterday went for hkd 6,700 a pop when gold was at usd 1,890/Troy. By delaying treatment, procrastinating on the vital, I saved (8,580/7.78/900) - (6,700/7.78/1,890) = 0.77 Troy ounces or 67%.
Would note that the lower upper class doctors of hong kong are getting ripped.
The current iteration of great recession may not be about biz cycles, or globalization of cost / revenue, or even debt levels - the still coming and ever darkest interregnum may all be about the cataclysmic show down between true savers and genuine spenders, the gold faithful and the goldless wastrels.
Universal suffrage will not be able to generate honest solutions. New world dynamism may play out more violently. Beggar thy neighbor could be ordained. The final outcome may be very predictable.
Speaking of the predictable, just in in-tray, American dynamism under guided flexible is showing its predictable hand,
realclearpolitics.com
"Hoffa Threatens GOP At Obama Event: "Take These Son Of Bitches Out"
Recommendation: getgold, hidegold.
In other words, re your earlier question on whether team USA really loses should the team choose the GOLD STANDARD in its capitalized version, the answer I suspect is yes, big time, because the most in USA have no gold.
The most have guns and bullets and SUVs they cannot afford running on highways they cannot maintain in an arena where too many speak in a foreign language and unable to read or write, but know where to go get food stamps.
As n when a society can no longer build its major bridges, we are nearer the time for computer-generated voice-over, "game over, player one".
Cheers, j
On 6 Sep, 2011, at 1:30 AM, G wrote:
S
I understand the feeling
On separate but related note, I wonder what it is like being in switzerland as watch a strengthening currency almost destroy an economy. Great for consumers who want to go to ny or germany for shopping. But pretty hard on any regular business.
Is not far off what can also happen in canada and australia, if currency continues to rise as compared to trading partners.
Especially for canada which is so strongly integrated into usa economy for exports, tourism etc.
Sure the guys in alberta, saskatchewan and newfoundland will be happy as sell commodities and energy. But plays havoc with other areas.
Sure makes for interesting times
From: S
Subject: Re: Gold trade reporting
Sent: Sep 3, 2011 18:13
G, a day does not go by when I do not contemplate the implications of the Canadian Loonie not being backed by the yellow stuff -- they unfortunately joined the demonetization party long ago
Which is why if you are potentially affected by such things, one needs to be at least partially in an instrument or group of instruments that synthesizes a long gold : short CDW pair
Having said that, in terms of long CDW exposure, since the bulk of the Canadian trade surplus with the USA is derived from energy sales flowing south, as part of the US banking risk I also worry about am upfront USD decline of sufficient magnitude (and where the Loonie remains temporarily elevated) that Canadian energy is priced out of the USA's ability to buy it from Canadian sources at world prices, which is to say, where oil & gas stops flowing south for lack of end user demand -- IOW, sorry Canada, I have enough of my own production to meet my needs for a while
In the longer term that's a self-correcting process because the Loonie would then obviously crater along with the Clownbuck, but self-correcting or not, things might remain rather bad for Kanuckistan for a long while if economic activity stateside drops off enough to substantially reduce the need for meaningful energy imports from Canada -- a distinct possibility when you consider that Canada acts as a swing producer in filling the largest part of the gap in American domestic production (with the Saudis in slot #2)
As you no doubt know, the next worst thing to you getting in trouble is when your best customer gets in trouble -- China might yet get a taste of that one too if the shit hits the fan
On Sat, Sep 3, 2011 at 8:08 PM, G wrote:
My big question other than loosing the ability to con the world by printing more paper money, on a going fwd basis.
If we go back to gold standard. Does usa really lose. As they in theory have large gold reserves.
Whereas canada has none.
Ie guys holding usd as their reserve , are they worse off then the usa who actually has gold at say xxxxx dollars per ounce , if it is at crazy levels referenced.
Of course they loose a major strategic advantage going forward. But many others hurt more
Best regards
From: B
Sent: Sun Sep 04 07:58:25 2011
Subject: Re: Gold trade reporting
Per Sinclair:
Yes, gold is going to become part of the monetary system, most likely by 2016.
Few people understand how. It is not going to be convertible. It will be tied to a Western World type M3. It will be part of a virtual reserve currency that you cannot buy or sell.
So, if the monitary unit is not convertable -- why would we not get the same manipulation as at present?
On Saturday, September 3, 2011, J wrote:
plugging gold price @ 15-20k would blow up the allocation spreadsheet of many on this e-mail blog,
skewing the spreadsheet to dangerously over-weight gold and underweight everything else.
to scenario-plan for such an eventuality, we need to ruminate over the fuller implications of a 15-20k gold world,
"what are the concurrent pricing of the other two of the three essential minerals and real estate, equity, etc |
