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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53517)	9/1/2011 12:34:20 PM
From: Sam	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

there are bullish stories about solar on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, stocks in the best companies will be 5 to 10 times higher than today. Well, the problem I see is that so many conglomerates have been expressing an interest in being one of those "best companies". I am talking about Sharp, Toshiba, Samsung, TSMC, just to name a couple of them. Also countries like Japan, China and India have all expressed the goal of having their country be either "the" leader or one of the leaders in solar technology, and these are countries that "pick winners," that is, they put money into favored companies in favored sectors to support their national policies. All of this will complicate the problem of picking those "best companies." Indeed, it may be impossible to do, and the companies will always just be trading vehicles. At least, that is my current hypothesis about solar. I am not sure that there will ever be a company that will be worth holding for many years, even though it is clear that eventually the market itself will be enormous.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53517)	9/1/2011 12:42:44 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

RE:I am deliberately risking being early, in order to be certain I'm not late. Which solar companies do you own? TIA...

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53517)	9/2/2011 12:05:48 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

Correlation: SOX, unemployment claims (U), and Junk Yield Spread (JYS = difference in interest rates between junk and AAA-rated corporate bonds): There is a positive correlation between JYS and U. There is an inverse relationship, between them and SOX. Any discrepancies between these relationships, can be expected to revert to the normal trends. For instance, in 1999 rising SOX and falling U, should have been accompanied by a falling JYS. The fact that JYS was steadily rising, from mid-1998 on, should have been a warning sign. That discrepancy was resolved by 2001, with the 3 variables assuming their normal relationship. In recent years, the relationship of these three variables has been extremely close. The long trough in U and JYS, 2004-2007, corresponds to the long high plateau in SOX. The end-2008 trough in SOX coincides exactly with the peak in U and JYS. The blip up in JYS in mid-2010, corresponds to the blip down in SOX. The peak in SOX in early 2011, coincides exactly with the trough in U and JYS. My reasons for posting this: 1. The fall in the SOX in 2011, is not some random event. It is closely tied to macro trends which should be watched. 2. Very recently, the Junk Yield Spread has spiked upward. If it keeps going up, then SOX will keep going down. ............... lower chart from seekingalpha.com