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Politics : Mainstream Politics and Economics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sdgla who wrote (510)	9/2/2011 6:14:39 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 85487

I think that the Professor's key assignment is subject to challenge. I have noted my challenges below. How to interpret the keys If five or fewer of the keys are false: Incumbent party wins. If six or more of the keys are false: Challenging party wins. KEY 1: Party mandate After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE KEY 2: Nomination contest There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE KEY 3: Incumbency The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE KEY 4: Third party There is no significant third-party/independent campaign. TRUE KEY 5: Short-term economy The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. UNKNOWN This looks on track to be a solid FALSE - 80% of voters think the economy is in recession right now KEY 6: Long-term economy Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE KEY 7: Policy change The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE This assumes that the majority of voters support the change in national policy and will turn out to keep it in place. The numbers on Obamacare suggest that the majority of voters will turn out to repeal it. So I say FALSE. KEY 8: Social unrest There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE KEY 9: Scandal The incumbent administration is free of major scandal. TRUE This is only true because the media is still in the tank for Obama. But some of them are climbing out of the tank. I rate this UNKNOWN. KEY 10: Foreign/military failure The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE So, the Mideast Peace Process produced a treaty and Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya are big successes under Obama? UNKNOWN at best, FALSE if there is a new Mideast conflagration, which could literally start any minute. KEY 11: Foreign/military success The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE Like what? Killing OBL? A five minute blip. FALSE KEY 12: Incumbent charisma The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE KEY 13: Challenger charisma The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE We don't know who the candidate is. If it's Perry, nobody outside Texas knows him. UNKNOWN. So I get six FALSEs and three UNKNOWNs