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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chainik who wrote (306551)	10/13/2011 5:57:20 PM
From: chainik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

<a decent chance of a move lower (maybe SPX 1060-1080?). Should it happen, I'll probably stop trading and go 100% long> So far, good guess. Bought as planned, but still have 12% cash. Sentiment is back to neutral. It is tempting to raise some cash, but I'll gamble on a rally into New Year. Retail folks are still buying puts (OCC retail data), clowns are shorting (Hulbert), hedge funds are badly underinvested. Nobody is aggressively long. A lot of bragging about the wisdom of risk management and staying in cash. Insiders data are mixed with a slight bullish bias. WAGs: 1. Steady drop in volatility 2. SPX around 1300 by New Year. 3. 1300 might be a reasonable short. Will re-evaluate if we get there. The plan: 1. No trading in investment accounts below 1260-1280. 2. Increase the holding period in trading accounts to a few days.