Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Kim who wrote (953)	11/18/1997 9:50:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 2173

D. Kim, I read the Barron's article when it first came out and saw nothing new.

To: D. Kim who wrote (953)	11/19/1997 1:41:00 PM
From: D.Right	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2173

Dear D.Kim: Of course Henry won't see anything new here, this is a positive article about the drug pramlintide from AMLN and Henry doesn't like pramlintide or anything AMLN may have for reasons he kept to himself. The only reason he posts here is to tell people AMLN is a really bad investment choice and they should all switch to LGND. I agree that most of the information in that article was available before if you have followed the company closely. But that is not the case for potential new investors who happened to read Barron that day. I am sure Henry would send out many many e-mails all over the places if it had been for LGND with or without new informations. What is new in the Barron's article, however, is that it was the first time we know how diabetic patients feel after they took pramlintide. It is true that you have to have the numbers for a FDA approval, I am sure AMLN is working for those number right now in the on-going trials, but it is what the drug can do for patients like the ones in Barron's article that will decide how successful a drug will be after the approval. And the article did tell us that. Good day D.Right

To: D. Kim who wrote (953)	11/20/1997 11:12:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2173

D. Kim, The original press release also indicated that 75% of the patients elected to continue to take the drug. The news that came out of the original AMLN release was not viewed favorably on the street, because the reponse was weak. Here's another competitor with a drug that knock's glycocylated hemoglobin down 2%, which is markedly more than Pramlintide's average. In the past I have recommended AMLN, but the news and price seem to be heading in the wrong direction. This news may be contributing to AMLN's weakness this morning: By Lauran Neergaard The Associated Press B E T H E S D A, Md., Nov. 19 - Diabetics may soon get a new medicine that promises to help their bodies produce insulin only when they need it, at mealtime. Scientific advisers to the Food and Drug Administration recommended Wednesday that Novo Nordisk's repaglinide be approved to treat Type II diabetes. But the doctors cautioned they weren't sure how to prescribe the drug-and asked if diabetics really would opt to take a drug three times a day, 15 minutes before every meal, when older medicines work with just one tablet a day. "You need insulin when you eat," responded company scientist Dr. Peter Damsbo. "No meal, no tablet." But Novo Nordisk never proved that taking medicine only with meals actually improved diabetes care, panel chairman Dr. Robert Sherwin of Yale University said after the 8-1 vote. Not Necessarily Better "All of us had some mixed emotions" about backing repaglinide, he said, noting that scientists don't understand how it works or even know the best dose. "The drug was comparable to other drugs already on the market. Superiority wasn't clearly demonstrated." The FDA is not bound by advisory committee decisions, but typically follows them. Because repaglinide, to be sold under the brand name Prandin, is the first in a new class of diabetes drugs, the government has promised a quick decision. About 18 million Americans have diabetes. Type I diabetes typically strikes children, who cannot produce insulin and to survive need lifelong, daily shots of the hormone, which converts blood sugar into energy. The vast majority of diabetics-16 million-have Type II, also known as the noninsulin-dependent type that usually hits in adulthood. The body's natural insulin gradually loses its ability to work, letting blood sugar rise. Unchecked, that can cause kidney damage, blindness, heart disease and other complications. These Type II diabetics are the ones repaglinide is supposed to help. They already can choose other once-a-day pills to boost insulin production and decrease blood sugar. Produces Insulin Quicker A healthy body quickly produces insulin after a meal to promptly digest blood sugar. Type II diabetics take longer to produce that insulin, and it takes longer for it to work. Once-a-day pills increase insulin production daylong-not just when blood sugar skyrockets after meals, but even when blood sugar naturally dips low, as in patients who don't have a snack before going to bed. The theory is that a drug that worked only at mealtime might decrease the risk of serious hypoglycemia-when patients' blood sugar actually drops so low that they could pass out, even enter a coma. In Novo Nordisk's studies, repaglinide patients had a 60-milligram drop in their overall blood sugar levels, similar to other diabetes drugs, said company scientist Dr. Martin Edwards. Patients had a roughly 2 percent drop in glycosolated hemoglobin, a measure of how high blood sugar affects diabetics' hemoglobin over time. May Benefit Light Eaters Diabetics who tend to skip meals might benefit from repaglinide, FDA adviser Sherwin said. But "did they really prove it mattered? Not really," he said. "Most patients would prefer to be on once-a-day medication." In safety studies of 1,200 patients, no one suffered hypoglycemia serious enough to require medical attention. About 1.5 percent of patients dropped out the study citing mild to moderate hypoglycemia, compared with about 2.5 percent of "control" patients who quit taking older diabetes medicines for the same reason. Repaglinide patients suffered slightly more cardiovascular side effects-including five patients who died of heart attacks compared with just one heart attack death among control patients taking other diabetes medicines. But the FDA advisers split on whether the findings were chance or a serious risk, and Novo Nordisk wants to study the question in depth while it sells the drug.

To: D. Kim who wrote (953)	11/20/1997 12:37:00 PM
From: schadenfreude	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2173

For the sake of argument, let's say that the Amylin product does become a $500 million product. The Barron's article estimates that this would net $2-3 per share to Amylin. With 32 million shares, thats $64-96 million. If this were true, Amlyin's stock is worth more than the current $7/share, but not a lot more. First, the earnings stream is about five years out since the drug won't be approved until 2000. And second, patent protection doesn't last forever--we're not talking about a perpetuity here. The company would of course be worth more if they have other products in the pipeline, but from what I've heard, this is a one-trick pony. If Barron's earnings estimates are true, then M Murphy's long-term projection of $100/share is all wet. I am missing something here? While the stock is down quite a bit from its highs and seems to be under pressure from year-end tax selling, I'm not sure the risk-reward relationship is favorable.