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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (41526)	9/5/2011 1:55:56 PM
From: ggersh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71412

sleep with one eye open-g-

To: Real Man who wrote (41526)	9/5/2011 3:25:48 PM
From: carranza2	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71412

Indeed. Pater Tenebrarum, the dark one, the one who sees all which is doom, death, pestilence and gloom, has an incredibly incisive article in his blog detailing the September chronology, which may sink Europe and cause serious trouble here. The Stoxx Europe index was down 4.1%, the German bond yield fell to 1.84% and the Greek bonds, if you care to buy high yield stuff, is promising 50% yields. A credit default swap index on 15 euro governments rose 18 basis points. Pater's gloomy September post: acting-man.com He has a lot of charts so I am furnishing only the link to save bandwidth. I am, however, copying the chronology stuff: Now consider that on September 7, the German constitutional court will issue its ruling on the bailout complaints. As we have noted previously in this context, the vast deterioration in the social mood occasioned by the post bubble secular economic contraction and the fact that the complainants are correct in both their economic and legal assessment of the situation makes a 'surprise ruling' much more likely this time around. Specifically, we think it possibly that the court will insist on precisely the type of thing the FDP wants to have: more democratic control of the bailout process through the German Bundestag. The month of September is in fact home to a great many events that could potentially upset the markets further. The first event that was originally scheduled for September 5 was the conclusion of the 'Troika's' review of the Greek budget. This as we have seen has already been postponed, to devastating effect. On September 8, we have the next ECB meeting, a meeting that is likely to disappoint, as ECB president Trichet is unlikely to do an immediate about-face and ease monetary policy again after just having hiked rates twice – in spite of the fact that markets are already pricing in renewed easing in view of the recent rapid deterioration in economic growth. September 9 is the deadline for the planned Greek debt exchange, i.e., the private sector contribution to the bailout, which due to its allegedly 'voluntary' nature requires the rigmarole of banks officially 'expressing their interest in participation'. Greece has let it be known that anything less than 90% participation by creditors would be deemed insufficient for the plan to go forward. September 15 is the day when the next disbursement of EFSF bailout funds to Ireland and Portugal is due. This is likely to happen without a hitch, but then again, there lately has been quite a tendency for Murphy's law to strike unexpectedly. The next FOMC meeting is taking place on September 20-21; we think by that time there could be enough panic in the markets to induce the committee of central planners to go for the pump priming equivalent of 'shock and awe' – especially after the truly dismal jobs report released last Friday. As we have noted before, the possibility that the markets will just 'yawn' and sell off anyway should not be dismissed out of hand. On September 29, the German Bundestag will vote on the new EFSF/ bailout ratification. This promises to be quite riveting this time. What else is going to happen during September? Well, for one thing, Italy must roll over about € 45 billion in debt. That could prove to be quite a problem, especially if market turmoil persists. Italian bond yields are once again soaring, following a decrease in ECB intervention and the Berlusconi government's recent backtracking on the austerity package. This has led to ECB president Trichet publicly admonishing Italy's government in an attempt to bring it back into line.