Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (79376)	9/9/2011 2:14:44 PM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Respond to of 218543

Coastal cities went up riding oil potential as it did S. Paulo commercial center of the country.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (79376)	9/9/2011 3:08:49 PM
From: THE ANT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218543

They have, but remember : they had not moved in 10 years prior in $ ,Brazilian Real up 3X in $ from the bottom, making up a lot of the gain we see,income of average Brazilian up greatly(minimum wage up 10X in dollars in 15 years), mortgages were nonexistant at the start(apts were bought and paid as they were built,houses were bought 30% cash,a old car and two lots,etc..), Brazil pvt and govt debt was 90% debt/GDP as of a year ago(usa debt/GDP was about 150% for the 50 years prior to 1981 and hit 390% in 2007 and now about 360%----I am arguing Brazil is underleveradged and will go to150% debt/GDP as rates fall), and Brazil still has the highest real interest rates in the world.Brazilian real estate also sold for more than US real estate 1972-1978(I can remember most prices since 10 years old) As I said I can not rule out a mild bubble at todays income/interest rate/environment, but if rates fall in half and debt/GDP goes up by 60 % points as Brazil stimulates to counteract the continuing rout in Europe and the US I would say it is fair value with potential to bubble Let me give you an example.I bought a 3B/2B 40 year old apt in a building attached to the wall of the governors mansion in one of the largest 5 cities in Brazil for 30K in about 2004( my american airlines credit card offered me 3.9% a year for life of loan with credit line 29.5 K-still owe 9K)Just based on currency and US inflation it should be worth 100K.Might sell for 200K now.Given the above info is that a bubble?Again I would not buy regular real estate but I know some nitch lots likely to go up 10 X in next 5 years.Too much money being made by the big guys to notice