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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (53632)	9/9/2011 4:26:07 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95502

<Is the probability of a recession fully factored in?> Probably not yet. But I've had Bloomberg mumbling in the background, all day, and they've been discussing the possibility of a double-dip recession, the odds and effectiveness of QE3, whether Greece will default this weekend, etc. I don't think I've heard a single piece of bullish news, or any bullish commentators. I'm betting we are close to a ST bottom. Look at the VIX chart you recently posted: where would you add the next "go long!" arrow? Even with today's sell-off, we are still in the upwardly-sloping channel:

To: Return to Sender who wrote (53632)	9/9/2011 5:56:10 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95502

RtS, I think you are right. <<You, yourself are thinking a 70% chance of a recession, that the market is still factoring into stock prices. Is the probability of a recession fully factored in?>> IMO we are somewhere in the middle of a low growth GDP or a slip back into a recession. The volatility is high, has been for several weeks, and this week is no different as the data to be posted will show. I think this is a good trading period, but filled with peril trying to judge which way the economy will go over the shorter term. During the last 6 weeks, since the week closing 8/5, the SOX has gone from roughly 360 to 330 and back a total of 6 times or once a week. The postings coming up will show a little of this action. From the start of this year to the end of June, a 6 month period, the SOX was "cycling" in the 425 to 475 range. Then from June thru July, about a 2 month period, the SOX was "cycling" in the 375 to 425 range. Starting in Aug, about the last 6 weeks, the "cycling" has been in the 330 to 360 range. The SOX levels recently are about where they were last September, 12 months ago, when the SOX had come down from earlier levels in the year to bottom about the 310 level. IMO, the SOX could easily continue trading in the low 300 to 375 range for many months before a strong uptrend to 400 and above takes place. In the meantime, I hope everyone who wants to trade in this environment, can make some money. Don