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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (53634)	9/9/2011 5:35:02 PM
From: FJB	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

Chip Stocks Hold Up Amidst Market Meltdown By Tiernan Ray Semiconductor shares are holding up relatively well in a weak market today, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) having actually shown a gain this morning, before succumbing to the market’s downward pull. Even now, the Sox is down only 1.5% at 347.05 compared to the 2.9% dip in the Nasdaq. The strength seems to come from the fact that many chip analysts believe the shares now reflect the worst of macroeconomic worries, even if the Street still needs to bring its estimates down. There have been three cuts to forecast by pivotal chip players this week, Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS), Altera (ALTR), and Texas Instruments (TXN), and that has effectively resolved some of the anxious anticipation of investors awaiting those cuts. Christopher Caso with Susquehanna Financial Group today writes that he expects further estimate cuts because of global economic uncertainty. But he’s also “comfortable buying product-cycle stories, including Qualcomm (QCOM) and Broadcom (BRCM).” The increase in inventory levels in Q2 across the semiconductor industry was “modest,” he writes, at 5%, quarter over quarter, a positive for the chip industry. “There is no change to our thesis as we continue to expect Street estimates to come down through 3Q earnings but believe with the SOX at 352, the risk/reward is approaching favorable levels.” Glen Yeung of Citigroup just got done hosting a whole bunch of chip companies at Citi’s Global Technology Conference this week. Those presentations pretty much confirmed what Yeung writes that he was expecting from the group, namely, a bottom in the chip business sometime this quarter or next. “No doubt, data points are soft for chipmakers. Consistent with cuts we have made across the group (2x), we expect consensus estimates to fall,” writes Yeung. “However, the upward/total estimate revision ratio for chips is 36%, quickly approaching buy signals; we are encouraged that other contributors to consensus are finally cutting estimates.”

To: Kirk © who wrote (53634)	9/10/2011 12:03:06 AM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

This chart of the Bank Index would scare me out of going long any bank related stock period. I much prefer the balance sheets of our favorite semi and semiconductor stocks but you know me I don't trade fundamentals. Good luck Kirk. I know the way buy in increments that you will do great. RtS

To: Kirk © who wrote (53634)	9/12/2011 6:58:37 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

OT re banks: This article says exactly what I think about banks: Preparing For A Credit Crisis I would not be long money-center bank stocks or bonds, not in the US and especially not in Europe. I have had private off-the-record conversations with Republican leaders. There is simply no willingness to do another TARP-like bailout of bondholders and shareholders. I believe them. As Hussman suggested, this time bondholders will lose. I just don’t know which ones will be ready, and there are lots of other places to deploy assets. If you feel you have some special insight, then be my guest; but I just see too much risk for the potential reward, especially in large bank bonds that pay so little. That is not to say they are all equally bad – certainly not the regionals with less exposure to Europe. But do your homework. (Caveat: I do think even the GOP leaders will have to cave in and allow the government to be “debtor-in-possession” of the too-big-to-fail banks we allowed to exist under the really bad financial bill called Dodd-Frank, which needs to be repealed and replaced. We have to preserve the system, but not shareholders and bondholders, who will lose this time.) seekingalpha.com