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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (79435)	9/10/2011 5:14:53 PM
From: Maurice Winn	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217542

ElM, you are amazing. I write it down so you can read it. Then you ignore it, having asked for the reason, then come up with a wobbling world as the answer. Maybe there were too many words for you to absorb? The sun is not just cycling up and down in a regular pattern. Have you heard of the Maunder Minimum? Have you heard of the Medieval Warming? Do you know of The Little Ice Age? These are like little waves from a small storm. Those were over a brief period. Take a look at a beach over a longer period of time and you will sometimes get hurricanes come through with a storm surge and a broken levee. New Orleans lasted for hundreds of years without Katrina. Northeast Japan went for hundreds of years without such a tsunami as we saw. Deserts expand and shrink which makes cooling increase and decrease. When the sun goes into a less active state, it gets colder. Especially so when the deserts are at their largest. The test of science is whether predictions match reality. My predictions matched subsequent reality. Global Warmist predictions did not. Here is my prediction for the next sun spot peak - 72. You can read it here: Message 25110645 I later reduced it a little in light of the solar minimum behaviour. I think it was to about 60 but I'd have to dig out the post from somewhere. Later, in 2009, the experts came out with their prediction - they had observed the same phenomena rather than predicted it so they came out with 90 which is well above mine. Here is their's science.nasa.gov If you cut the heat coming in, there will be an effect. What do you think that effect would be? Yes, the world wobbles too and that also has an effect. Tectonic plates move too, and that also has an effect. A very large one because land being on average nearer the equator increases reflection and land on average further from the equator reduces reflection. Volcanoes and CO2 also have effects. What matters in the short run is the dominant effect at that time. Right now, the solar output is the biggie. CO2 from people has an effect but not of any substantial consequence it seems or we would have got more than 0.7 degrees C from 100 years of raising CO2 from 280 ppm to 380ppm. Just that increase solar output [see the sunspot activity] is enough to explain that 0.7 degC. I don't know whether the next freeze up in 2020 will be just another Little Ice Age or a return to the normal state of the past few million years of glaciation. Either way, it won't be so great up in the cold latitudes. My guess is reglaciation as the time seems right since the last one, we are at the end of the normal short interglacial period. The sun has fizzled over billions of years and is a pathetic glow compared with its past glory. Lucky for us too because as the atmosphere thinned, there is less blanket for warmth. Nature and Gaia are not in balance. Gaia is a suicidal maniac who has stripped the ecosphere of carbon and buried it in stupendously vast deposits of coal, limestone, shale oil, tars, methane and oil. Humans have recycled a minuscule fraction of that carbon, getting the atmosphere from the starvation level of 280 ppm to 380 ppm. Plants were literally dying for lack of CO2. They fought each other to the death to get sunlight, water and the pathetic amount of CO2 available. In the good old days, there was ten times as much in the air. Now, they can breathe easy. They need less water. The deserts can be reclaimed bit by bit. Prepare to meet thy doom in 2020. Well, it should be very pleasant in Brazil, Angola and Mozambique. Portugal too. So you should be fine. But Ottawa will be untenable and BS will have to move south. Northern England will be bleak to hopeless. Stockholm not so nice. Invading Moscow should be put on hold [the French and Germans both got their timing wrong on their efforts - winter can be bleak in Moscow, especially when you look at the 1812 graph of sun spots]. Mqurice

To: elmatador who wrote (79435)	9/10/2011 5:45:10 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217542

Here are some of your wobble graphs which show that we are now sitting right at the tippy toppy peak. Guess which direction happens next: en.wikipedia.org The question is whether it's this century, 1000 year from now, tomorrow or .... ? What effects might cause the phase change? I have explained the shorter term dominant phenomena. Plate tectonics are of little effect even though Japan made a bit of a move. Moving plates cause long term changes such as away from ice age altogether. Deserts and solar variation - that's the big combination to watch. Deserts don't change much in a few solar cycles. The big change short term is the solar cycle. We know when the low is coming, near enough for government work. With 2020 foresight, I have predicted 2020 refreeze. It was possible that 2008 would see the freeze, but I decided while the next few winters would be cold and snowy, which they turned out to be, freezing up the Copenhagen Global Warming conference, making them head for the tropics next time, we would get through to the next minimum because the heat sinks are too big to cool off fast enough to allow reglaciation so quickly. By 2020, we should be just right. See the "benthic forams" and "Vostok ice cores" graph above. Mqurice

To: elmatador who wrote (79435)	9/10/2011 6:57:36 PM
From: Maurice Winn	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217542

Note the increase in cosmic rays when the sun is at a minimum: <According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet. > Did you read about the research done by CERN showing the extra cosmic rays cause high clouds like contrails which results in more reflection of sunlight? 2020 - get ready now. Actually, originally I was thinking of 2019 or 2018 but decided 2020 foresight was more fun so pushed it back a year or two - which will also give a couple of extra years at the minimum which will allow a little more cooling for the transition to be recognized as not just weather. I also predicted no WMDs and people say "Yeah, 2020 hindsight is easy" but they don't understand that a prediction is made BEFORE the event. Mqurice