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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom who wrote (903)	11/19/1997 1:26:00 AM
From: Tom	Respond to of 2951

Another slant on the peg... Investors need a stable, dependable exchange rate mechanism for use as a platform when purchasing. We all know this is very desirable for a number of fundamental reasons. No matter what they do, the result must be stability. When a change comes, I feel it will be executed deftly. I believe in the capability of both the PRC and the HKMA, when it comes to such matters. They have proven their ability to adroitly execute financial changes. There are, however, some hazards that could complicate matters. One being a SIGNIFICANT failure to promulgate the desired change in the SOE sector. Another being, my suspiscion that there are still too many hands in the fiscal pot. (All the elements must dance in unison, especially now.) I don't number forex events, foreseen or unforeseen, among my concerns. Like you said once, Doug: "I wouldn't want to have that job." Additionally, as M. Mobius stated to the press yesterday, any change in the peg will most likely come when no one expects it. But, it will come. For my money -- and believe me, it is my money -- the peg is not a consideration now or in the future. The peg won't "fall." The currency will not be de-based. It'll be effectively re-based. All for tonight. Whew!