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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (156825)	9/12/2011 8:40:15 AM
From: ChanceIs	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206137

The Greek GDP is locked in a downward spiral. For all of their "good intentions" of fiscal proper behavior, the situation is beyond redemption. Of course honorable Greek intentions are a fantasy. Greek workers - and Irish - will ultimately go the Icelandic route. In the long run the Greek sovereign bondholders will accept their haircut. That will ultimately lead to another round of American TBTF bailouts. I have a call scheduled to my CongressPuke this AM to carp in advance about another such effort. "Not on my back buddy."

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (156825)	9/13/2011 7:21:55 AM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Respond to of 206137

OT: Global Economics View A Greek Exit from the Euro Area: A Disaster for Greece, a Crisis for the World citigroupgeo.com --- Afternoon Comments The U.S. Can Only React to Europe 12 September 2011 ¦ 9 pages citigroupgeo.com --- Sovereign Ratings Outlook September 2011 12 September 2011 ¦ 20 pages ir.citi.com excerpt: We expect a series of sovereign ratings downgrades among euro area countries in the next 3-6 months, including Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus. We also expect Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland to be downgraded further over the longer term (next 2-3 years). Over the next 2-3 years, we also expect that France and Austria are likely to be put on negative outlook, with Belgium at risk of a single notch downgrade. Over the longer term (next 2-3 years), we also expect that the sovereign ratings of the US and Japan will be downgraded in response to adverse medium-term fiscal trends. We do not currently expect the UK to be downgraded or put on negative outlook in the next few months or the longer term. But the UK is a relatively weak “AAA”, given the sharp rise in the fiscal deficit over recent years, surging public debts, large banking system, weak economic outlook and prospect that the deficit will overshoot official forecasts. The UK’s rating could be at risk if the coalition falls apart or eases up on the fiscal consolidation programme. We regard the smaller European countries (Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway) as fairly solid AAAs for now, albeit with some concerns over the rising fiscal deficit, sluggish housing market and poor export performance in Denmark. We do not expect any ratings upgrades among advanced economies, either over the next few months or the next 2-3 years.