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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (53695)	9/13/2011 4:23:48 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

<cyclical trough in early FY 12 (Oct.)> I predict the cyclical trough happens a lot later than October 2011. Probably sometime during calendar 2012, and 2H is more likely than 1H. Bookings need to drop below 1B$, before we even start looking for the bottom. <customers have refrained from major purchases and orders remain at historically low levels.> Looking at Gottfried's charts, bookings peaked this cycle, at a level very close to where every cycle since 1995 has peaked (2000 excepted). AMAT's sales this upcycle, were at all-time record levels (in stark contrast to the stock price). I don't see any evidence for his conclusion. <a recent plunge in selling prices for solar modules will enhance project returns and improve the excess industry supply scenario.> Yes, supply and demand will come back into balance in solar.........because capacity expansion is coming to a dead halt, and will not resume until 2013. I predict solar will do nothing to help AMAT's stock price, until 2013.