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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53705)	9/13/2011 8:37:28 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95526

I am not trying to make much of an issue of this, but I do think that in general(there can be exceptions), the SOX does bottom prior to Bookings making a bottom. <<However, the trough in stock prices does happen while bookings are at (or very near) trough values.>> To look at an example, I used the tables already created, did some cutting and pasting, and copied it below. The table shows the SOX bottoming in Nov 2008. At that point Bookings were 784M on their way down from higher values. More data can be found at the Bookings and Billings tables previously posted. From Nov 2008 the SOX(and the Group stocks as well) started to rise while Bookings continued to fall. This process continued until the relative flat bottom in Bookings during the Feb, Mar, Apr and May period. At that point, the SOX was in the 250 region. This is about 5 months after the SOX bottom of 180 in Nov. To summarize then, this is about a 40 percent gain in the SOX, while the Bookings were in the process of bottoming 5 months after the SOX low. As you pointed out, the bottom was not sharp and adjustments could be made in buying patterns during this period. Another item of note, the earnings estimates continued to tank after the SOX Nov bottom and continued to their bottom during late Feb, early Mar. This is a period of about 3 months.