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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcyhuang who wrote (53715)	9/14/2011 10:33:11 AM
From: robert b furman	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95530

Recent Dollar strength has had a large impact on commodities. Many believe the Dollar has not only reversed but broken out to the up side. This would be a second strike on oil,dollar strength combined with the excess supply of WTI - record spread between BRENT and WTI shows the longer term decline in oil is actually possible. Needless to say this assists the anemic recovery and transportation benefits particularly in a relative way Steady increase shale plays and fracing is morphing the US into a growing producer of oil. Bodes well for a longer term recovery. I think most that call for a trough in semi equipment are forgetting the huge Capex that Intel is pursuing.The learniing curve of Intel with force the quickened pull in of technology buys (Taiwan fabs must keep up and are also pulling in Technology buys). If youo don't have it being delivered now - you won't be selling it by the Christmas seasonal boost. This has deferred some equipment into 2012. My bet is the trough will not be severe but longer and flat at a higher level. BWDIK Bob