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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53719)	9/14/2011 7:17:54 AM
From: brokenst0nes	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95530

Revenue warnings from semi chip designers(non equipment guys) so far are from companies with large exposure to distributors where channel de-stocking has occurred due to all the macro issues, most others so far have reiterated guidance, granted sub-seasonal. Some end product categories are weaker (PC, industrial) than others (smartphones, wireless), which so far appear to be holding up well. So from a chip demand side the foundries and chip designers with fabs (ex DRAM) are doing ok, hence why we might not see equipment demand drop much further. Clearly europe is ticking time bomb, who knows if and when that blows up and how that changes things.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53719)	9/14/2011 3:47:22 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	4 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95530

Jacob, I hope you don't mind, but I "borrowed" the SOX chart you posted and I added some info. At the bottom of the chart, Bookings, Billings and BtB are added to correspond to the months you show in the graph. The color coding for Bookings and Billings is: Red for a downtrend, Yellow for a flat trend, and Green for an uptrend. Color coding for the BtB is: Red for less than 1.0 and Green for greater than 1.0. Data is shown up through July because that is the last month available. August data is due to be posted by late tomorrow evening. As you pointed out earlier, the SOX bottomed in Nov 08 at 167.55. Both Bookings and Billings were on the downward trend, Bookings at 784 and Billings at 807. Booking remained under 300M during Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, and May, while the SOX made it to the 270/280 area. In Jun 09, both Bookings and Billings hit their stride and started a nice uptrend which for Bookings lasted to Aug 2010, a period of 15 months. Then a leveling out process began with BtB going from green to red where it still remains today. Right at the same point in Aug 2010 when Bookings started "flattening out", the SOX started a great uptrend at 305 carrying it all the way to a peak of 474 in Feb 2011. All of this during the time Bookings were flat(at a nice level) while BtB was in the red, not a nice situation since that means backlog was decreasing. Starting in March 2011, the SOX trend has been down hitting at least a short term bottom just recently in Aug with the hint of an uptrend in place. During this downtrend, Bookings and Billings were flat and now down, while BtB has been solidly in the red. Needless to say, the August SEMI data out tomorrow night will be very important to review for clues going forward. It is also interesting to note that the SOX can go down as well as up during good times. From Apr 2010 to late Aug, early Sep, the SOX went from 405 to 305, a loss of 100 points while Bookings, Billings, and BtB were all in the green, doing very nicely, thank you. BtB numbers were very strong.