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To: ecrire who wrote (25989)9/14/2011 2:13:40 PM
From: GST8 Recommendations  Respond to of 29622
 
<No reason to think this will change any time soon> Nothing is ever obvious until after the fact. But one thing will soon enough become obvious -- in fact it is obvious enough now, but not priced into the market -- is that the US is built on debts that cannot be repaid -- ever -- and ever higher and higher levels of additional debt are required to simply make payments on the outstanding debt. Central banks can flood the zone and make this seem like a non-issue leading to absurd pricing of debt instruments. This is a replay of the housing bubble, but this time it is treasuries that hold the esteemed position of priced to fantasy. Now for me, when something is priced to fantasy, I am less concerned about picking the exact nano-second when it all goes wrong, than with being on the right side of the market after the turn -- and make no mistake, the turn will come.

Your voice, like the voice of those who defended the absurd pricing of housing only a few years ago, make sense only if you overlook the fundamentals and fail to look forward -- the hallmarks of successful investing.



To: ecrire who wrote (25989)9/14/2011 2:19:37 PM
From: Nevada99991 Recommendation  Respond to of 29622
 
I agree the change may not come soon, especially by your definition of soon. My caveat is that when the change occurs it may happen with disturbing abruptness and permanence.

Actually, it makes me wonder if Paul Volcker really hiked interest rates in the early '80s to 'slay inflation' as historical spin states or because he foresaw a death spiral in bond buying at low rates (a crisis of confidence).