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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (10072)	11/19/1997 5:15:00 AM
From: SPEEDRACER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

I show the HK market down only 90 points are you sure about your info? SPEEDY========================================================

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (10072)	11/19/1997 11:39:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 25960

The feedback I'm getting is that the U.S. market is actually relieved, in the long-range, at the idea of Japan letting a couple of its banks take their lumps. General feeling is that the Asia problem is partly a result of too-easy credit. Interest rates need to come up a little and banks need to feel the pinch if they lower their loan standards. The US certainly goes through this often enough, with the big New York banks still trying to learn the cost of high-interest loans to Mexico, Poland, etc. Let 'em explain it to their shareholders. I've got bank stock, and you better belive it's in a bank that won't respond from government pressure or short-term high interest rates to lend money to South America. At any rate, if this reading is correct, thank heaven the Fed is going to let the market do it, rather than raising federal rates. A few nice bankruptcies in Asia are going to solve the "deflation" doomsaying pretty quickly. As to Cymer per se, and the idea that future pushouts may already be incorporated into the share price, I see the glass as half-empty. Why invest your money in ANY front end company at this point, with both short and long-term outlooks so questionable? Yes, the industry is going to need smaller-etch litho systems, but it also needs, even more desparately, the excellent money-saving high-productivity test and assembly equipment coming on line. BTB in test and assembly is STILL almost 1.2 for October, with no slowdown in sight. These companies are going to smoke earnings in the next 6 months. Maybe Cymer and ASM will appreciate 50% in the midterm, but TER and CMOS and COHU and EGLS and all are just a better percentage shot. Well, we'll see, each of us has his own money. My sale of Cymer at @24 (I think it was actually about 24 1/2, but my memory could be a little rosy :)) and purchase of CMOS, is so far looking good, and my bet is that the preformance gap between Cymer and back-end stocks will widen. I may get back in the front-end when things settle down a little. One thing for sure -- right or wrong, I'll be here yakking as if I know what I'm talking about. Best regards, and thanks again for the news from HK, I really appreciate it.