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To: Return to Sender who wrote (12244)	9/16/2011 3:19:05 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT: re KLIC short: I've made money shorting this year. However, I could have made more money, if I'd simply held everything, from the time I first shorted it, till today. For instance, I've shorted NFLX several times, and made money, but missed the huge gap-downs. I'm thinking to hold this KLIC (and MU too) short longer than usual. The chart, macro news, and sector news are all bearish. U.S. consumer spending is flat (actually, down, if you adjust for inflation). The Chinese economy is slowing. Every data point, on the macro situation, is bearish. Japan and Europe, I think, have a 90% chance of recession (my 70% odds were for a global recession). In that macro environment, I don't see any way semis and semi-equips do well. I'm expecting 3Q11 and 4Q11 earnings season to be consistently disappointing, especially for semis and semi-equips. The August low can't be a lasting low: we didn't even get down to the 2010 lows. If we continue to rally, I'll happily short more.