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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (157140)	9/16/2011 6:05:23 PM
From: Amark$p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

Thanks Ed, I will take a look. Give me a few hours, am eating a big bowl of Vietnamese Pho take out... (link worked via cut and paste)

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (157140)	9/17/2011 8:35:05 PM
From: Amark$p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

Agree, believe the 1,355 average Boepd for 3Q is aggressive, given natural decline rate/prior quarter history. Wish NNN provided more detail on Bopd results by WY field rather than just WY Bopd total. Believe the average Bopd for 2Q was lower because of some downtime at Willow Draw to expand processing facilities. But I would think all these wells were back at full production by end of 2Q. My forecast model for NNN WY production based upon WY decline curve and each well having IP of 70 Bopd showed that it would be 2013 before production stabilized. (Nimin capex only began in earnest in 3Q10.) What I like about these WY wells is they are long life wells, but it takes 8 quarters after IP for production to stabilize at about 50% of IP. FWIW, here are my quarterly projections assuming IP at 70 Bopd: IP..1q.. 2q..3q..4q..5q..6q..7q..8q..9q..10q..11q..12q 70...62..55..48..43..41..39..38..36..36...35....34....33 As you can see, production really begins to stabilize after first 6 to 8 quarters and NNN gets off the production treadmill at that time. For example, NNN having 24 WY wells producing, and adding 12 new WY wells versus having 10 wells producing and adding 12 new wells for year. Liked your prior comments on how water flooding at their largest Ferguson Ranch field would help smooth production, and thus allow NNN Bopd to stabilze sooner in 2012 rather than 2013.