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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (11775)	9/19/2011 3:23:01 PM
From: Sam	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

JKS is at 6.63 now. It is tempting to me to buy it back for another trade, to recoup my small loss from last week. My past experience of these companies makes me hesitate--they went to levels that I never imagined they would go to before. My guess is that their PEs go to these absurd levels because Mr. Market doesn't really trust their "E," and he wants to leave a nice fat margin for error, especially in a time like this when Italy and Germany--two of the largest markets for solar--are facing financial crunches themselves. Even if the TTM "E" is real, it can disappear in a hurry if there is another serious credit crunch, especially if Europe is at the epicenter of that crunch. And while I do think that China will develop its internal solar market and they are a real wildcard in that, if the govt wants to do it in a hurry, they will do it in a hurry, it appears that they also are trying to help their European "brethren" (which is to say, some of their best customers) maintain at least some stability, so that they themselves won't be infected by this contagion. They are still export dependent, and if their customers stop buying, they will be in trouble. This is a really really complicated situation, with a lot that can go wrong, and a lot of ways it can go wrong. In such situations, having so many people and so many banks and so many governments burdened with so much debt is not a good thing. And even though many multinational corporations have a fair bit of cash, they are hoarding it, which doesn't do the global economy any good either, as the velocity of money flowing through the economy is every bit as important as almost any other variable that determines GDP growth. If the velocity is healthy, we have growth w/o inflation. If it is too slow--as it is now--we have recession and possibly deflation. If it is too fast, we inflation and "fake" growth. All that said, I may be a sucker and buy some near the close, with the idea of selling it again tomorrow on a blip up in the morning, or buying an equal amount in the morning if it gets hit again and selling it in the afternoon. Even stocks in a downtrend don't go straight down. At least, not usually, lol. I may talk myself into becoming a long term investor yet!

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (11775)	11/29/2011 2:13:33 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	4 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16955

3Q11 solar results: seekingalpha.com My comments: 1. FSLR's numbers continue to put it in a class by itself. They will be profitable in 2011, while everyone else loses money (using GAAP EPS). 2. LDK is in a death spiral, with huge short-term debt. Expect serial forced asset sales at distress prices, a slow-motion liquidation. 3. Gross margin rankings: FSLR 38% alone at the top; YGE, TSL, STP (also SPWRA) at 11-13% in the second rank. JKS falls out of that group; everyone else with negative or barely positive gross margins, mainly due to big inventory write-downs. Industry conditions are so painful, they can't last. 4. Solar capacity buildout has now come to a complete halt. Much existing capacity is obsolete, non-bankable, and/or high-cost. 5. Stock prices are collapsing, because falling panel prices haven't caused a surge in demand. I remain confident we'll see that surge in demand (timing uncertain, though), because grid parity is in sight in some major markets.