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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (2162)	9/19/2011 10:57:40 PM
From: FJB	1 Recommendation Respond to of 85487

RE:IOW, the models are now obsolete and need updating. I'm going to guess the models will be updated to give the same results as before.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (2162)	9/20/2011 1:00:31 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 85487

"IOW, the models are now obsolete and need updating." That is your opinion, which is why you aren't a climatologist, or any kind of a scientist at all. Conservative Media Predictably Butcher Study Of Cosmic Rays August 31, 2011 4:27 pm ET — 62 Comments Fox and other conservative media claim that CERN's study of cosmic rays "concluded that it's the sun, not human activity," causing global warming. In fact, at this point the research "actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate," according to the lead author, and it certainly doesn't refute human-induced global warming. EMBED Embed this video: Findings Say "Nothing" About Effect Of Cosmic Rays On Climate CERN Studied Effects Of Cosmic Rays On Aerosols, Which Contribute To Clouds. From the press release about the study by CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research: In a paper published in the journal Nature today, the CLOUD experiment at CERN has reported its first results. The CLOUD experiment has been designed to study the effect of cosmic rays on the formation of atmospheric aerosols - tiny liquid or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere - under controlled laboratory conditions. Atmospheric aerosols are thought to be responsible for a large fraction of the seeds that form cloud droplets. Understanding the process of aerosol formation is therefore important for understanding the climate. The CLOUD results show that trace vapours assumed until now to account for aerosol formation in the lower atmosphere can explain only a tiny fraction of the observed atmospheric aerosol production. The results also show that ionisation from cosmic rays significantly enhances aerosol formation. Precise measurements such as these are important in achieving a quantitative understanding of cloud formation, and will contribute to a better assessment of the effects of clouds in climate models. [CERN, 8/25/11] Lead Author: Paper "Says Nothing About" Effect Of Cosmic Rays On "Clouds And Climate." Nature reported: http://mediamatters.org/research/201108310023 = Maybe when this happens,... We were clear in the 2006 post that establishing a significant GCR/cloud/climate link would require the following steps (given that we have known that ionisation plays a role in nucleation for decades). One would need to demonstrate: … that increased nucleation gives rise to increased numbers of (much larger) cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) … and that even in the presence of other CCN, ionisation changes can make a noticeable difference to total CCN … and even if there were more CCN, you would need to show that this actually changed cloud properties significantly, … and that given that change in cloud properties, you would need to show that it had a significant effect on radiative forcing. Of course, to show that cosmic rays were actually responsible for some part of the recent warming, you would need to show that there was actually a decreasing trend in cosmic rays over recent decades – which is tricky, because there hasn’t been (see the figure). Figure 2: Normalised changes in cosmic rays since 1953. There has not been a significant downward trend. The exceptional solar minimum in 2008-2010 stands out a little. The CLOUD results are not in any position to address any of these points, and anybody jumping to the conclusions that they have all been settled will be going way out on a limb. realclimate.org