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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (2181)	9/20/2011 10:13:28 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 85487

"I'm happy for Shaviv. It's nice somebody thinks well of him. Too bad it's not his peers." July, 2003 Co-published a paper titled “Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?” ( PDF) in the journal GSA Today (a publication of the Geological Society of America). The paper was accompanied by a press release entitled “ Global Warming not a Man-made Phenomenon,” where Shaviv was quoted as stating,“The operative significance of our research is that a significant reduction of the release of greenhouse gases will not significantly lower the global temperature, since only about a third of the warming over the past century should be attributed to man.” The claims were disputed in an article in Eos, by an international team of scientists and geologists. According to RealClimate, the scientists found that Shaviv and Veizer’s analyses were “based on unreliable and poorly replicated estimates, selective adjustments of the data (shifting the data, in one case by 40 million years) and drew untenable conclusions, particularly with regard to the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations on recent warming.” desmogblog.com = Rahmstorf et al. 2004 Rahmstorf, S., D. Archer, D.S. Ebel, O. Eugster, J. Jouzel, D. Maraun, G.A. Schmidt, J. Severinghaus, A.J. Weaver, and J. Zachos, 2004: Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate. Eos Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 85, 38, 41. Several recent papers have applied correlation analysis to climate-related time series in the hope of finding evidence for causal relationships. For a critical discussion of correlations between solar variability, cosmic rays, and cloud cover, see Laut [2003]. A prominent new example is a paper by Shaviv and Veizer[2003], which claims that fluctuations in cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth can explain 66% of the temperature variance over the past 520 m.y., and that the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of CO2 is less than previously estimated. Here we present a critical appraisal of the methods and conclusions of Shaviv and Veizer [2003]. Download PDF (Document is 380 kB) pubs.giss.nasa.gov Small world; spent one youthful summer working for Severinghaus' father at the Cardiovascular Research Institute at UCSF. = These claims were subsequently disputed in an article in Eos (Rahmstorf et al, 2004) by an international team of scientists and geologists (including some of us here at RealClimate), who suggested that Shaviv and Veizer’s analyses were based on unreliable and poorly replicated estimates, selective adjustments of the data (shifting the data, in one case by 40 million years) and drew untenable conclusions, particularly with regard to the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations on recent warming (see for example the exchange between the two sets of authors). However, by the time this came out the misleading conclusions had already been publicized widely. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/peer-review-a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition/