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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (22068)	11/19/1997 11:59:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hank "the trend is your friend". And a stitch intime saves nine. Step on a crack, break your back. Mathematically it is impossible to generate a predictive trend line using ARIMA models or econometric models. You can get your trend to point in any direction you like by judiciously choosing the beginning, but in reality it is meaningless. I would also venture to say that you could have shorted virtually any stock in September and be making money on it now. Did your charts predict a general market decline? Haruspex and astrology are about as predictive as charts. As I pointed out before, the market is down about 10% from it's recent highs. Dell is down about 18%. Considering that DELL has a beta in excess of 2.0 I would think that a reasonable person might conclude that DELL was holding up fairly well. I would also think that a reasonable person might conclude that the market's reaction to the SE Asian monetary crises was not foretold in the charts. Regards, Paul And remember, a penny saved is a penny earned.