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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (2176)	11/19/1997 12:38:00 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6180

Look at this monthly chart of TXN since 1992 and tell me some thing isn't wrong with "Nov 1997" ! geocities.com Later we will get into why FIDO has been selling TXN since oct 24, 1997. Yes ! My view is TA not FA Larry Dudash

To: TREND1 who wrote (2176)	11/20/1997 7:59:00 AM
From: otter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6180

Larry, thanks for the info. The trend is obvious; and applies not only to TXN, but a whole lot of technology issues (all the ones, in fact, that I follow). My conclusion is that it isn't that the market is down on TXN specifically, but on the sector in general. It may be that TXN is being punished a little more than some of the others perhaps because of DRAM; but IMO, not at all solely because of it. In fact, in my completely unscientific manner of thinking in this arena, I'm happy with allocating 1/3 of the 30% fall that TXN had to DRAM and 2/3 of it to - "market forces" that has affected the entire sector. And that ain't bad. So for me in the short term, its less what TXN can specifically do to reverse the trend; and more what forces in the market will reverse the general slide in tech issues. Then on a longer term basis - whether or not TXN's announced and very highly publicized strategies actually play out. Given that, if the market today wants to hurt TXN a lot more than it should because of its perception about how dependent they are on the DRAM situation; and ignores for the time being its growth in DSPs, I'm not unhappy, because it gives me the opportunity to accumulate with all due thanks to people who might be overly concerned about the DRAM thing (how's that for a turn of words - the 'dram thing' - too early in the morning for this, really). Now, to the point about DSPs being a commodity to a lesser extent than is memory. IMO (again, I'm not an engineer. I know enough to get myself into trouble). Memory is a commodity in every sense of the word. Within a defined domain (SIMM, SIPP, DIMM, speed, parity and other rules), it doesn't matter who I buy that memory from. I can buy it, slap it in, and run. I - the consumer - can't do that with memory; and I - a manufacturer - can't really do that with a DSP. First, they are made with defined capabilities in them. Second, they aren't standard. They come in different physical configurations, power requirements, etc. - and the programming supplied by the OEM - if in fact the OEM supplied the programming is proprietary to the application and to the specific characteristics of the chip is it not (I believe this to be true. Correct me if I'm wrong). Therefore, if COMS, for example, who is using TXN DSPs in their modems were to want to consider buying a DSP or for that matter an ASIC to do the same task, the modem would probably need to be reengineered at some levelm, and would also likely need to create new softare - at some aggregate $ figure which, at the end of the day, could potentially be quite high. That kind of environment doesn't allow me to classify a DSP as a commodity as I would define it. So. The long and short of it is that (1) I think the DRAM thing is overblown, (2) the DSP thing is perhaps underrecognized, and (3) I'm content with what is today. Obviously, there are things I don't understand and events that neither I nor you nor anybody else can forecast with complete accuracy; but on a risk/reward potential basis, I'm not unhappy........