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To: Tommaso who wrote (8554)	11/19/1997 11:01:00 AM
From: studdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Again, if the japanese DO sell treasuries and the yield rises, then it would present the buying opportunity of the century, as it seems the yields would come back down to those justified by the inflation rate. Karl

To: Tommaso who wrote (8554)	11/19/1997 11:15:00 AM
From: Jocelyn Ally	Respond to of 18056

Tommaso, Karl, Thanks for your comments. While this buying of long bonds is for holding to maturity, I would hate to advise my relative (now in cash from funds) to follow me in, and then see a significant blip short term! Myself, I can handle this, having bought them a while ago and being forward looking. I like yardeni's thinking. Jocelyn

To: Tommaso who wrote (8554)	11/19/1997 11:43:00 AM
From: John Dally	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Hi Tommaso, I agree with your thinking. I originally (3 months ago) thought bonds were attractive because they seemed to be the forgotton asset class (vs. stocks, RE, gold, etc.). But now, aren't bonds climbing that proverbial "wall of worry?" I think that someday we'll be looking at 5% yields and will look back and realize what a great deal they were at 6%. For now, I'm sticking with my macro theme: short semi equipment manufacturers. The DRAM spot price is down 20% in 1 month. Since many consumers are choosing the sub-$1,000 PC over the "latest and greatest" from Intel, an increasing portion of the microprocessor market is being commoditized, putting margin pressure on microprocessors as well. The Koreans and Taiwanese are huge semi equipment customers and will be spending their cash flow paying back $ debt, because bankers wont risk lending them new money to buy equipment given the excess capacity, currency and stock market turmoil. (Assuming bankers are still conservative.) For those who like pictures, the SOX (as well as MSH) is showing lower lows and lower highs: tscn.com Also, here's a link for semi spot prices: smithweb.com BTW, how's that African frog doing? (Remember, I asked you to invite some Frenchmen over for appetizers.) Best regards, John.