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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (80126)	9/22/2011 10:59:33 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217742

yeup, behaved well, and gold is certainly well up ytd blessed

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (80126)	9/23/2011 10:32:29 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 217742

The primary concern I would have with that chart is the status of the PPO indicator. It's just starting to roll over at the high range and a retest of $1577 appears likely before an oversold rally occurs. More likely is a volume reversal/hammer put in at $1500 psychological support. IMO, QE1/2 flooded the market with liquidity and did nothing but provide "juice" for a commodities based inflationary rally. But driving up commodity prices at the expense of a devalued USD accomplished little. What is really required is further deflation in the cost of raw materials to enhance economic growth. But since many emerging markets are large exporters of raw commodities, this is destined to damage their growth prospects. And if the EU does finally breakup (as we currently know it), there will be increasing flight to the USD and out of commodities as the European GDP is devastated by defaults and political turmoil/uncertainty. Things may be very tough in the US, but corporate profits still seem to be faring well, and there is little chance of a breakup of the US, no matter how bad the economy becomes. This cannot be said for Europe. I also still submit that the debasement of the USD throughout the QE period was an attempt to lend support to the Euro, thereby preventing it from breaking through "par" of $1.19, its value at original issuance. It almost reached that point ($1.20) last year prior to QE2. stockcharts.com Eventually, it will likely retest that exchange price once more, and either hold, or break it to the downside. That may be when Gold actually shines in terms of Euro valuation. But it will also likely lend support to the USD. And a stronger USD is the bane of commodity prices, to include Gold and Silver. Hawk