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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (80142)	9/23/2011 7:44:09 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217842

Yes. It is obvious. I am not disputing that when I look to the set of circumstances that led individual countries to these outcomes and, more important into what this will turn, again for individual countries. Let's look in this posting only to the Brazil and the outcomes affecting only it: Brazil had an working economy before commodities boom and will keep it after the commodities comes to earth. Indebted countries had an economy before the credit party, but will have a very different economy after the unwinding. Brazil has nothing to do with the commodities boom. Meaning: it not actively worked for that boom to be created. Money piled up into it driven by China importing for its Industrial Revolution (it by passed the Industrial Revolution, you go there and you see anything old is made of wood, stones and bamboo) and investor piled up bets into it to The problem for Brazil is as commodities plunge if it has to grow internally, it must change what its oligarchies, civil servants and lots of special interests. This is politically very difficult to achieve. If it does not, any internal growth causes inflation since all bottlenecks cannot be worked without touching the reforms that have to be made. Brazilian oligarchies, civil servants and lots of special interests are happy with GDP gorwth driven by exporting commodities. If commodities boom comes down to earth, US and Europe tanks, and China slows down dramatrically, I expect a 2 to 3.5% GDP growth as it is Brazil's potential without reforms as pre-commodities boom. Japan already went to the dogs and no longer matters.

To: THE ANT who wrote (80142)	9/23/2011 1:21:05 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217842

'Why should nurses aides making $10 an hour be driving an SUVs or Lexus to work.So what if Joe six pack cant retire at 62 and live selfishly on the streets of Fort Lauderdale?Since when should a Federal Government worker make 30% more than the private sector?Why should a Art or History major not be driving a cab?.You see there is no solution other than the return to lower wealth.I recently read that if the top 10% of the US population paid 100% tax rate it would not cover 30% of this years deficit.Again it is game over.The wealthy in the US can do little to offset their coming pain much less that of others just as the Germans will not be able to bail out the PIGs and even then will have to accept their own lumps.Is this not obvious to all?Can 100% over valuation of assets in the developing world as of 2007 be resolved in a painless manner.Again Brazil did nothing great.It was not invited to the credit party just like a person who misses a plane that later crashes.Inflation can only shift wealth from one group to another and not increase the pie.Easy money from the Fed can only distort and lower GDP while holding off the pain.Is this not obvious?' Many excellent points. Obviously no one at the debate last night outside of Ron Paul saw any of this coming so how can they have a solution? But neither did this old 'friend' of ours in 2006. 'Dont you remember the call of no housing bubble'? Message 26819362