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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aka_Jimbo who wrote (67537)	9/24/2011 8:03:17 AM
From: Runomo™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207338

ur rite on about money stuck in unproductive assets at this time but i've never been a fan of the runaway inflation you have in mind and i don't think it is necessary to see that for people and companies to start buying stuff like crazy....the inflation Genie is very tuff to put back in the bottle not unlike the deflation Genie and fortunately we live in an age where structural global forces(cheap labor) and technological innovation ( first rate productivity) mitigates against this type of runaway inflation...there is a better word and I haven't heard it said for over a decade : GOLDILOCKS.......

To: aka_Jimbo who wrote (67537)	9/24/2011 1:09:36 PM
From: lipid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207338

"it starts with interest rates going UP, which isn't the common paradigm. CNBC will spend months with confusion over why interest rates going up could happen while stocks go up and gold goes down." thats what i said a couple weeks ago, when i gold treasuries 'were dun'. but the people on cnbc who will understand will mostly be old guys with gray hair who have seen this before. my very smart kid basically asked 'how in the world the doom and gloom, bad economy (essentially the negative sentiment) won't change for years. I said it all can change in a flash, split second. all that has to change is federal oppression of one sort or another... which is simply changing the inputs to the equation for investment. I used Volcker's monetary change that had smart money rushing into bonds at 15% because they understood what the change meant. but i totally agree with Don about the coming inflation... it will be huge... bigger than the 70's nightmare because economic activity will be able to keep up with wage increases. it will probably start slow in about 2-3 years with a change of congress and white house squatters. but thats just conjecture. that change could be just as bad as the current congress and white house. the coming inflation is sitting in the banks right now, in free cash reserves and total reserves ... most of it on loan from the Fed at 0 interest and earning 2-4% and most important... it complies with the oppressive DoddFrank law. but if the banks ever started lending at say, 30% of the risk on levels they had in 2004-06, the inflationary effects would show up very quickly but wouldn't get out of control for a few more years, then the over confidence would kick in somehow, and then the parabolic phase of the NEW inflation would take off. the whole time of the above cycle of economic gameplaying, stocks will be "partying like it's 1999". i think the 2009 low on ndx and nasComp charts look like the dow did at the lows in 1942. the parabolic rise and fall from 80's to 2003 then the recovery into 2007 (the B wave), ala the Dow's B wave from 1932/3 through 37 rally .... and then the correction into '09 was similar to the 50+% correction into 1942 for the Dow. yep, it's a long term for short bonds, short gold short euro short yen a little, long US assets, long Canada, long australia, long Nikkei, long brazil, long korea, long india imo, oil and gasoline are about to go through that '37 to '42 decline... so 40 to 50 is a long term landing for crude. imo, gold may get close to 1000 but that may not happen for another couple years.