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Biotech / Medical : Immunex -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles Hill who wrote (135)	11/19/1997 1:15:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 656

Charles, a couple of questions. I don't follow IMNX closely so they may be a little naive. 1 - You mentioned in your post that AHP has an option to buy IMNX 5/98. Browsing Edgar Online, it looks like there's a standstill agreement preventing a hostile bid anytime through 5/31/98, but no option to acquire the rest of the company. What's the actual arrangement, and if it's just the expiration of the standstill agreement, what do you expect AHP to do and why, and when do you expect them to do it. 2 - From the IMNX 10-K, AHP's payments to IMNX covering the shortfall on oncology product revenue end 12/31/97. Although the analysts all know this, and have undoubtedly factored this into their models and earnings projections, do you think the loss of these payments starting CY Q1 98 will affect the price of the stock? TIA. Peter "AHP is required to make payments or contribute products to the Company if revenues from certain marketed products do not achieve established levels ("Expected Revenues") through December 31, 1997. The revenue shortfall obligation is limited to a maximum amount in each year ("Maximum Guaranty Obligation"). Such payments are treated as additional contributions to the capital of the Company. AHP's Maximum Guaranty Obligation and the Expected Revenue for the year ending December 31, 1997 is $60.0 million and $216.5 million, respectively. The Company recorded a receivable from AHP of $56.0 million, $45.3 million and $35.8 million for the revenue shortfall for the years ended December 31, 1996, 1995 and 1994, respectively."

To: Charles Hill who wrote (135)	11/19/1997 6:38:00 PM
From: TideGlider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 656

Charles: Thanks so much for you reply. It isn't that I believe the words of the analyst. It is that I have seen this so many times before. The stock falls and then everyone holds it up believing they have bought the bottom. Only to see it falling again. Sometimes they only keep the price up after a big fall to save money on naked puts they had sold. I fear it will fall and it will be the death blow to me. Look at CNTO. It fell and will not recover. Cymi.... all received the death blows. Until they get it for the price they want they will tear it down. I would guess after expiration(Friday) it will gap down big Monday. Starting Friday it could go down significantly if it follows the model. Then the boom on Monday. They (analysts) will not be made fools. They said 50 and it will most likely come. The 50 is 12 month target!! Damn them!! I feel much safer coming back after the fall. Maybe in February or March. Again...thanks for your concern.....not many people care enough to encourage others. I have just been beaten down too much. More than I have ever lost. I wasn't near a phone this morning so I didn't call in. Then I heard about the unusual rally and let it go today. I will be watching the Asian markets carefully tonight. If there is a strong down the equity euphoria that was only induced by the "flight to quality" that brought down the bond price/interest rate with not hold the selloff. It will also offer an excuse for profit taking. If this stock heads down and breaks 60 their will be no cushion. It will free fall to the 42 levcel...then the next strength seems to be 36...29 and 20.... I know you are thinking I am crazy but I just saw it happen...with CYMER. They actually had great earnings. Theu proved the rumors false. They have a 40% projected rise. Yet they went from 98 pre split to 15 post split. That is incredible for a company that did nothing but produe income. Check it out. Montgomery and Morgan Stanley did it. Best wishes and hoping for great gains for you!! Bruce