Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (80264)	9/25/2011 12:35:32 AM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217774

TJ, to remind myself of what has happened, I had a look back over the Dow stockcharts.com and the same thing but in words with some notes about what happened at different times mdleasing.com I am getting long in tooth and have experienced directly much of that history, with close enough experience of the first half of the century from my parents and grand parents who lived through 2 x world wars and 1 x great depression not so many decades before. I first paid close attention to share markets when I first bought shares in the mid 1960s. While I remember each of the big crashes in fair detail and what happened economically in a macro sense at the time, the numbers seem more dramatic than it all felt at the time. It was interesting to be on the phone to the broker [in London, from Antwerp] mid plummet in 1987, deciding what price to put on Hambro Countrywide. In 1974, I had sold all my shares [a piffling number of them really but it was significant at the time] before the crunch. So where to for the 1:1 ratio? Diaper deflation 3K or Hyper inflation 30K? In the 1930s, there was a gold standard so there was not a lot of wriggle room in price variation. So the match was in the diaper region. In 1980, there was no gold standard, since it had been dumped in 1971 with "In God We Trust" having replaced "In Gold We Trust" [few noticed the l go missing in the change]. The "Promise to pay on demand the sum of ten pounds" was dropped as being anachronistic as it was replaced by a more ethereal "We Promise to tax you ... as much as we like"... The engineering of money had changed over 100 years from Newtonian physics based on avoirdupois measure of lumps of gold in ounces to Financial Relativity Theory based on Black Scholes, event horizons, time dilation and the fact that as the money traveled closer towards the speed of mind, it actually literally shrank so it took more of them to reach a certain distance, but there were more of them to do it, but the possession of them quantum tunneled from the people who thought they had them to the people who decided the strength of space time in which they moved. It's understandable that some people think it was better to simply have lumps of gold than that arcane mumbo esoteric jumbo which is obviously not designed to benefit the people holding the monetary units. The irrational exuberance of the early 1970s, when supertankers were being built, Yank Tanks weighed in at tons, the Moon was just a stepping stone, The Jetsons showed the way to the future, and gorgeous Emma Peel played Eliza Dolittle in Pygmalion in London, gave way in 1979 to carless days, the energy crisis, rapid inflation, bulk unemployment, monetary devaluation and a peak in gold after a decade of Dow doldrums. The irrational exuberance of Y2K, when the Biotelecosmictechdot.com Cyberspace revolution when eyeballs were an economic unit, gave way to the terror of the Twin Towers and a two trillion dollar era of WAT and undie and shoe bombers while governments pigged out on borrow and hope and Hope and Change to keep themselves and their hordes of government "workers" and vote-bearing beneficiaries in the manner to which they had become accustomed. Now the PIIGS have come home to roost [so to speak]. The situation monetarily is more like that of the 1970s than the 1930s. So I think the Dow:Gold ratio will change by way of Dow remaining sort of constant [if up and down 50% is constant] while dollars are diluted by the pixelation process backed by the full faith and determination of the USA electorates and their beholden politicians. "Blame the Banksters" is the cry [which we see right here in SI]. Politicians are happy to oblige. We can therefore expect QE I, QEII, QEIII coming faster than the ships named after Queen Elizabeth II. Dilution of savers is standard operating procedure like melting plough-shares into bombs when the going gets tough and the tough get demanding. If there is not a return of Virtuous Victorian Values to the body politic [and you have seen how popular the idea is right here in SI even when explained, let alone on the streets of Athens and London] then we can expect to have a rapid progression towards PIIGS resolution by way of QEa,b,c ... x,y,z [for Zimbabwe]. So we can expect to see Dow and US$ approaching each other at about, oh, let's see. Ummm... Hang on, I'll check a graph. About $9,314 looks right. That would be about 2015, [maybe 2014] which happens to be about when the next solar peak will be and when a solar flare might influence electronics. And look, some people seem to think there is correlation of sun activity with human behaviour [I like to go outside on sunny days so there is definitely some correlation but they mean of a more dramatic nature] michaelmandeville.com All with my usual double your money back guarantee. I'll throw in the 2020 reglaciation too. As you can see, the next 10 years will not be dull [though the Global Warming industry will be quiet and probably totally ignored with Solyndra being one of the first to go bust. Did you bail out of photovoltaics in time? salon.com Mqurice PS: But remember - there is a joker. I should have my brand new currency ready to go well before then, so gold might be going down faster than US$ as Atavistic Aztecs run for cover from all the drama as Cyberspacoids take over.