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To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (22092)	11/19/1997 12:38:00 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hank, I'd be very interested in taking a look at some of your charts. If you want you can fax them to me at 209-368-9325. Let me know if you will and a time, so that I can set my computer to the fax. Thank you! Mark

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (22092)	11/19/1997 12:47:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

<<Let me ask you this about FA! If TA can not predict what will happen how can the market in general or individual stocks tend to start up or down 6 to 12 months in advance of good or bad news? The market has always forcasted good and bad times 6 to 12 months in advance!>> FA is not predictive of anything. It's best used as a method of weeding out weak companies from consideration as potential investments or identifying potential short candidates. The other point is that the market is frequently wrong! Here are just a few stocks to remind you: ASND, JBIL, OXHP, WDC. Each of these was a high flyer until some major bit of uncomfortable news hit the market. If you go back to the threads just before the major decline for each stock and look at what the T/A folks were saying and compare it to what those same people were saying when the stocks were in the middle of their secular up-trends you will find no difference. Isn't the joke that the market has predicted three of the last two recessions? I will stand by my statement. All evidence in favor of T/A is purely anecdotal and does not withstand rigorous statistical analysis. It's a religion clad in pseudo-science. It uses the buzz-words of statistics like "stochastic" but discards the central element: hypothesis testing. Regards, Paul

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (22092)	11/19/1997 1:43:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Hank und Hank, You have been saying that you are using the 10 and 60 day moving averages to arrive at your price targets. Just as a sanity check, I calculated the 10, 60 and 200 day moving averages of DELL's stock price. I used three common methods as follows: 1) arithmetic average (AMA) 2) exponential moving average (EMA) 3) weighted moving average (WMA) The results follow: AMA (10) 79.29 EMA (10) 81.06 WMA (10) 79.68 AMA(60) 90.53 EMA(60) 86.15 WMA(60) 89.43 AMA(200) 63.72 EMA(200) 67.91 WMA(200) 76.32 It clear that the 10 and 60 day moving averages do not support a projected price of 60 to 64. Rather the 60 day MA supports a price of around 90/share. You would have to reference the 200 day MA to come close to that number. What are you really doing?