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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (157859)	9/29/2011 11:29:35 PM
From: Archie Meeties	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

Jacob, have you considered lining up all of the positive economic data as well and comparing it to the recession data you post? If you are bearish you will seek and find recession data, that is human nature. The same confirmation bias tendency is true in most activities and it is difficult to fight. To acknowledge and then attempt to reject our bias forces us to hold two competing possibilities as equal. Usually, we seek to resolve to one side or another. Far less uncertainty in doing that. But imo It would be far more helpful to continuously and thoughtfully consider the opposition position. At a minimum, a humble student of different bias' can increase awareness of gaps in his knowledge. At best, such a studnet might discover that his current stance is misguided and likely unhelpful. Best wishes... Archie.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (157859)	10/5/2011 12:23:39 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

RIG close to $42, a longterm support line: Given the recent oil finds off the coast of Brazil, we expect the market supply of deep-sea drillers to remain relatively tight. This should be a bright spot for the firm given this is where it excels the most and the fact that shallow and mid-water exploration pricing remains weaker and the market is more volatile. With RIG holding the dominant position in deep sea drilling, the prospects for the firm look great even with oil prices remaining weak in the short term. seekingalpha.com Transocean owns (or co-owns) and operates 136 mobile offshore drilling units, including 48 High-Specification rigs (Ultra-Deepwater, Deepwater and Harsh Environment), 25 Midwater Floaters, 9 High-Specification Jackups, and 51 Standard Jackups. Four High-Specification Jackups are also under construction. The NY Times estimated that the company owned almost half of all deepwater platforms in the world in 2010. marginofsafetyportfolio.com ...many rigs were taken off line after the BP (BP) spill but are being all brought back and all should be in operation by the end of the year. seekingalpha.com Viewed as one of the primary villains of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill along with BP (NYSE: BP), Transocean fought in various Swiss courts for close to a year to get permission to pay the dividend it now pays topstockanalysts.com The recent quarterly dividend of $0.79, was the first dividend payment since 2002. Management has said that dividend will be "recurring, sustainable". 0.79X4/45 = 7.0% yield. 3.4B$ cash = 11$/share LT debt/cap = 0.3 my comment: RIG, like SU, is a bet on high oil prices. Deepwater drilling, like Alberta oil sands, is an expensive way to get oil. Brent under $80, or any fear we might see those prices, destroys stocks like this. If RIG hits $42, bounces, and volume spikes, we may be seeing a bottom.