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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (44702)	9/30/2011 1:41:42 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78735

Hi Paul Re: Noble Group Ltd. (NOBGF.PK) The YOY growth in BV is encouraging. I like their their recent asset buys in Brazil; Nobel completed the acquisition of two more operating sugar and ethanol mills in Brazil, an acquisition which we first announced in December 2010. These mills when combined with the imminent completion of the second of the two mills that we have built ourselves, means that we are now a top tier integrated sugar producer in the most competitive locations in Brazil, which is itself the most competitive producing country in the world, accounting for over 50 per cent of the seaborne exports of sugar. These are the same things Bunge Limited Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) and Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) have invested in. Nobel's ROE of 17% is much better than BG (8.4%) and ADM (12.06%) too. Their high use of debt probably helped them achieve their superior ROE number. I like also that they have a play in the Brazil electric grid generating electricity from their bio mass plant. They do deploy the use of a lot of debit which I would rather they would not do. The positive is that they did not get hurt too bad by that in the 2008-2009 credit freeze crash. Either they were lucky or management was able to navigate the land mines. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I did not see anything regarding their next dividend. I believe I received a stock dividend along with some type of stock split. Do you recall reading anything about a dividend? EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (44702)	10/5/2011 3:50:24 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78735

Hi Paul Clownbuck posted the June 30, 2011 analyst report for Noble Group Ltd. (NOBGF.PK). It's worth a read it's only 12 pages long.( thisisnoble.com ) From the report:"...High growth appetite matched by prudent management Noble has achieved tremendous growth in recent years, primarily due to the addition of new products and capital investment in production and processing facilities. Revenues and tonnage showed respective CAGRs of 37% (from USD11.7 billion in 2005 to USD56.7 billion in 2010) and 15% (from 90 million metric tons to 184 million metric tons) over the past five years. Its goal is to double its revenue in five years – from 2007 levels – and achieve a return on equity of 20%. Such a high growth rate and diversification present opportunities and challenges...." ----------------------------------------------------- They confirm pretty much what you posted earlier: ROE=17% One of the company's goals in order to achieve this growth: "...Strategic capital asset investments, focusing on storage terminals, port facilities, inland distribution operations, and processing and refinery facilities...." I think Ultrapetrol (Bahamas) Ltd. (ULTR) would be a good fit especially that they are selling at historical lows. There was a new senior convertible debt issued from last year that provides the holder to convert their preferred into common shares at $7.50/share. I think the issue was $200M and it paid 7 1/2%. It might make an interesting speculation for NOBEL to acquire as much of the ULTR preferred as possible and if those cash flows come in as expected to buy the company by exercising their conversion option. It would be a $1B+ transaction. After searching the archive, I find that the only common link is that both companies had used J.P. Morgan as their investment banker for recent financing needs. No other mention of either company regarding their shipping and/or logistics business. EKS