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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6414)	10/1/2011 12:05:15 AM
From: marc ultra	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Mr GJ re "With so many investors out of the market the "easy" money is waiting to be made." I felt strongly we were at such a point after the recent successful retest of the Aug low which prompted me to be very bullish given all market indicators looked extremely bullish except for the economy, and I thought we'd do OK there even with 1%-2% growth. Since what I look at is to a large extent what I've gotten from Bob Brinker over the years I wasn't surprised to see he felt the same way on the retest. I have huge respect for the ECRI and I've been burnt by not heeding their major calls in the past and follow them very closely. What they're implying now is growth will be negative and we're entering into a lengthy downward spiral of weakness. We had a point like this in 2007 I believe where the ECRI made their last recession call and Bob was on a buy signal and the rest is history. It's true that valuations, bearish sentiment and the Fed and interest rates are all very bullish and more so than 2007 but I think we're likely heading into another bear if the ECRI call is correct. 1096 will be 20% off the S&P highs and put us in a bear and that's only a little over 3% away. I don't know if we'll bounce first or not but if that 1101-1119 August closing and recent successful test level doesn't hold then we're probably going a lot lower into a bear. Keep in mind I don't like or use technical analysis in general but this is the one situation that I do use something like that as Bob has generally used it successfully in terms of an expected successful retest in an over 10% correction in an ongoing cyclical bull. The bottom line is based on history I've got to believe what the ECRI is saying and if I assume they're right then we are almost certainly heading into a bear which could be prolonged and ugly and it will also then make these macro issues like Europe and budget fights worse so I have a major problem staying bullish here even though Bob is essentially on a buy signal now. Time will tell but my recent bullish talk and conviction here and elsewhere is over for now.