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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sergio H who wrote (44734)10/1/2011 1:40:51 PM
From: NikhilJog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78672
 
interesting.....helps me make my point..however i don;t see a negative view of lilly in there..



To: Sergio H who wrote (44734)10/28/2011 3:29:21 PM
From: E_K_S  Respond to of 78672
 
Hi SergioH -

Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK)

Merck 3Q profit soars, beats analysts' views
Drugmaker Merck profit climbs from year-ago results weighed down by charges, beats Street view

From the article:"...Excluding more Schering-Plough acquisition and restructuring charges in the latest quarter, adjusted income was 94 cents per share, 3 cents per share higher than expected by analysts surveyed by FactSet. They typically exclude one-time items.

Like other drugmakers, Merck continues to suffer from U.S. and European government health programs reining in spending, generic competition to former blockbusters and other problems.

The company raised the lower end of its 2011 forecast, to a new range of $3.72 to $3.76 per share, excluding one-time items. Analysts expect $3.73 per share.

Analyst Erik Gordon of University of Michigan's Ross School of Business was upbeat about the results.

"Merck could become the only recent megamerger in pharma that is actually working," he said. "Usually, the claims that a merger will create a stronger new product pipeline and reduced costs pan out as firing lots of people and overpaying for a pipeline that disappoints.",,,"

==============================================================

Analysts s/d be raising their 2012 estimates. PE is now around 9. Merck said it expects revenue for all of 2011 to grow by mid-single digits from $46 billion last year. That would indicate most growth is coming from beneficial exchange rates and probably some price increases.

Therefore, I see this one priced fairly at 9 PE based on their organic growth rate. You still get good exposure to their global foot print. They probably also are able to maintain their pricing power looking into 2012.

I am a buyer below $30.00/share but would only start to peel off shares around $40.00/share. My position in MRK is 1.6% of the portfolio. My buys go back to 2008 with an average cost around $28.50/share.

EKS